“潜水”气旋及其对波罗的海东南部海岸影响的后果

IF 0.7 Q4 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Z. Stont, V. Bobykina, M. Ulyanova
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在波罗的海东南海岸观测到的根据HYSPLIT计算模型重建的气旋轨迹,可以识别出北向气旋,即所谓的“潜水”气旋。这类气旋的记录已经编制完成,表明它们的发生频率越来越高:自上世纪80年代以来,有两个这样的气旋(1981年和1983年)已经过去,自本世纪初以来,在22年的时间里- 14。它们在加速长度上存在显著差异——从波的尼亚湾到波罗的海东南海岸约1000公里,并且具有很高的势能。与此同时,大气涡旋产生高达7-8米的风浪。它们与严重的、有时是灾难性的自然海岸的侵蚀和退缩有关,特别是北部的暴露,以及对度假城镇沿海基础设施的破坏,包括联邦城镇,历史上集中在加里宁格勒地区的桑比亚半岛北部海岸。每个气旋影响后的破坏程度取决于其形成和发展的史前史、沿海水域的浪涌高度和海岸的形态特征。季节性风暴活动的发展主要有两种情况。例如,2011-2012年和2018-2019年冬季。活跃的西风超过20米/秒的气旋使海面水位上升到+ 40-60厘米后,“潜水”气旋带风暴北风的接近导致海平面瞬间“飞溅”,高出正常水平100-120厘米(标记最大值为160厘米),这与海滩的高度相应。第二种情况与一系列(群)气旋的发展有关。这一点在2022年冬季表现得尤为明显,当时有四个“潜水”气旋经过,天气很好。西部气旋是最后一个。加里宁格勒沿岸地区宣布进入紧急状态。“潜水”气旋通过的两种情况都与加里宁格勒地区海岸遭受的最大风暴破坏有关。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
"DIVING" CYCLONES AND CONSEQUENCES OF THEIR IMPACT ON THE COASTS OF THE SOUTH-EASTERN BALTIC SEA
observed on the coast of the South-East Baltic has been made. According to the trajectories reconstructed using the HYSPLIT calculation model, cyclones with a northern trajectory, the so-called "diving" cyclones, are identified. A register of such cyclones has been compiled, showing their increasing occurrence: since the 80s of the last century, two such cyclones have passed (1981 and 1983), and since the beginning of this century, over a 22-year period – 14. They differ in a significant acceleration length – about 1000 km from the Gulf of Bothnia to the southeastern coast of the Baltic Sea and have high potential energy. At the same time, atmospheric vortices cause wind waves up to 7–8 meters high. They are associated with significant, sometimes cata-strophic, erosion and retreat of natural coasts, especially the northern exposure, as well as the destruction of the coastal infrastructure of resort towns, including federal ones, historically con-centrated on the northern coast of the Sambia Peninsula of the Kaliningrad Region. The degree of destruction after the impact of each cyclone depends on the prehistory of its formation and development, the height of the surge of coastal waters, and the morphological features of the coast. There are two main scenarios for the development of seasonal storm activity. For example, in the winter season 2011–2012 and 2018–2019. after active cyclones with strong westerly winds of more than 20 m/s, which raised the water level in the sea to +40–60 cm, the approach of a "diving" cyclone with storm northerly winds caused an instant "splash" of the level up to +100-120 cm above the ordinary (the marked maximum is 160 cm), which corresponds in order of magnitude to the heights of the beach. The second scenario is associated with the development of a series (cluster) of cyclones. It manifested itself especially clearly in the winter season of 2022, when four “diving” cyclones passed with short windows of good weather. The western cyclone was the final one. A state of emergency has been declared on the coast of the Kaliningrad region. Both scenarios of the passage of "diving" cyclones are associated with the greatest storm damage to the coast of the Kaliningrad region.
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来源期刊
Russian Journal of Earth Sciences
Russian Journal of Earth Sciences GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY-
CiteScore
1.90
自引率
15.40%
发文量
41
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