Causes and Consequences of Third-Party Intervention in Disputes over History: Recognition of the Armenian Massacre as Genocide and Relations with Turkey

Abstract In the post-Cold War international society, third-party intervention has become increasingly common across various spheres. What were previously assumed to be domestic or bilateral issues have become of great interest to foreign governments and international organizations. Disputes over history, whose intensification in many parts of the world is also a recent political phenomenon, are no exception. Regarding past atrocities by one country upon another, the “victim” side seeks recognition and redress from third parties, while the “perpetrator” side tries to prevent such interference. This paper investigates the causes of such intervention and the consequences of it for bilateral relations between the intervenor and the “perpetrator” country, using the conflict between Armenia and Turkey over the recognition of the 1915–1916 Armenian Massacre as genocide as a case study. The results reveal that countries with a Christian majority and a large Armenian population typically conduct such intervention, and that although third-party intervention affects bilateral relations negatively, the effect is only temporary.