DEINDUSTRIALIZATION OF SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries as a group have been deindustrializing for more than three decades. Logistic growth functions of the share of manufacturing value added in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) provide estimates of the rate at which the manufacturing sector has diffused into each SSA economy. Deindustrializers (industrializers) have negative (positive) manufacturing sector diffusion rates. Sixteen SSA countries experienced significant deindustrialization. Factors associated with deindustrialization trends are identified. Countries with low real per capita incomes and those unable to diversify their manufacturing base, expand production for export, or export sophisticated products more frequently experienced deindustrialization. These countries also had relatively low gross capital formation and educational expenditure shares of GDP. Starting with a small manufacturing base does not appear to constrain the industrialization process. Excessive reliance on minerals production did not encourage deindustrialization. Policies are identified that will help countries avoid deindustrialization.