长期预测:一种新的时间趋势分析技术

Engineering and Process Economics Pub Date : 1978-03-01 DOI:10.1016/0377-841X(78)90038-4

R.F. de la Mare

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引用次数: 2

摘要

大多数具有战略性质的商业决策都要求在制定协调一致的计划之前对未来事件进行预测。在这方面，产品生命周期所描述的未来产品销售的可能水平是特别令人感兴趣的。本文开发并验证了一种特殊的时间趋势分析模型，笔者希望该模型具有一定的实用性和创新性。该模型基于等式:St= S*1-exp[-(tAB)]

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Long term forecasting: A novel time-trend analysis technique

Most business decisions of a strategic nature require the forecasting of future events before any concerted plans can be formulated. The likely future levels of product sales, as depicted by the product life cycle, is of special interest in this regard. This paper develops and validates a particular time trend analysis model which the author hopes will be useful and which is believed to be novel. This model is based upon the equation: $S_{t} = S^{*} 1-exp[-(t A^{B}]$

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Engineering and Process Economics

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