古巴雅布气象站如何战胜混沌理论

Ricardo Osés Rodríguez, C. Llanes, R. F. Duarte
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文利用古巴雅布气象站的极端温度、极端湿度及其平均值、降水等8个气象变量,对古巴雅布气象站的极端温度、极端湿度及其平均值进行建模。根据这15年、13年、10年和8年,通过回归客观回归(ROR)的方法,对解释其行为的每个变量获得了1977年至2021年期间的风力和云量的线性数学模型。结论是,这些模式可以对天气进行长期预报,为预报开辟了新的可能性,结论是,如果采用这种预测方式,可以克服时间上的混乱,在温度、风力和云量的持续预报中计算平均误差,而持续模式在湿度方面较好,这使得在一个地方有价值的长期天气信息。这样就能在经济和社会的各个方面做出更好的决策,这些方面都会受到天气预报的影响。这是第一次将ROR模式应用于预测8年、10年、13年和15年的天气预报过程。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
How the Chaos Theory is Defeated in the Yabu Meteorological Station, Cuba
In this work, 8 weather variables were modeled at the Yabu meteorological station, Cuba, a daily database from the Yabu meteorological station, Cuba, of extreme temperatures, extreme humidity and their average value, precipitation, was used. The force of the wind and the cloudiness corresponding to the period from 1977 to 2021, a linear mathematical model is obtained through the methodology of Regressive Objective Regression (ROR) for each variable that explains their behavior, depending on these 15, 13, 10 and 8 years in advance. It is concluded that these models allow the long-term forecast of the weather, opening a new possibility for the forecast, concluding that the chaos in time can be overcome if this way of predicting is used, the calculation of the mean error regarding the forecast of persistence in temperatures, wind force and cloud cover, while the persistence model is better in humidity, this allows to have valuable information in the long term of the weather in a locality, which results in a better decision making in the different aspects of the economy and society that are impacted by the weather forecast. It is the first time that an ROR model has been applied to the weather forecast processes for a specific day 8, 10, 13 and 15 years in advance.
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