预测舍入、预测不确定性、经理人语言与投资者判断

IF 2.3 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Jessica L. Buchanan, M. D. Piercey
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们调查了四舍五入(例如,10%)与非四舍五入(例如,9.73%,10.00%或10.27%)的销售增长预测如何影响投资者的判断。我们假设,当舍入程度与预测的不确定性相匹配时,投资者更愿意投资一家公司(即,在更不确定的环境中进行舍入预测,在更不确定的环境中进行非舍入预测)。我们还假设管理者可以通过在预测中使用更直接的语言来抵消预测舍入和预测不确定性之间不匹配的负面影响。在第一个以mba学生为投资者的实验中,我们发现对我们的假设既有支持,也有部分支持。然而,在第二个使用在线工作者的实验和第三个使用mba学生的实验中,我们没有找到支持我们假设的证据。总体而言,我们没有发现预测舍入、预测不确定性和语言即时性对投资者判断的可复制影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Forecast Rounding, Forecast Uncertainty, Managers’ Language, and Investors’ Judgments
We investigate how rounded (e.g., 10 percent) versus unrounded (e.g., 9.73 percent, 10.00 percent, or 10.27 percent) sales growth forecasts impact investor judgment. We hypothesize that investors are more willing to invest in a company when the degree of rounding matches the amount of forecast uncertainty (i.e., rounded forecasts in more uncertain environments and unrounded forecasts in less uncertain environments). We also hypothesize that managers can offset the negative impact of a mismatch between forecast rounding and forecast uncertainty by using more immediate language in their forecasts. In a first experiment using M.B.A. students as investors, we find a combination of support and partial support for our hypotheses. However, in a second experiment using online workers and a third experiment using M.B.A. students, we fail to find support for our hypotheses. Overall, we fail to find replicable effects of forecast rounding, forecast uncertainty, and language immediacy on investors’ judgments.
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来源期刊
Journal of Financial Reporting
Journal of Financial Reporting BUSINESS, FINANCE-
自引率
6.70%
发文量
19
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