O fluxo de capital para as economias emergentes e o grau de desenvolvimento do sistema financeiro

The objective of this is study is to assert the role of domestic financial system as mitigating of sudden stops episodes and driver of capital flows in a group of 14 emerging economies in the period of 1999-2013, especially in face of unfavorable external environment such as high international interest rate or global risk aversion. The countries analyzed – Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Russia, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey and Ukraine, represented in August 2014 roughly 80% of the EMBIPLUS and 60% of EMBIGLOBAL. We work with distinct types of capital flows: Inflow of Foreign Direct Investment, Inflow of Portfolio and Net Capital, and conduct robustness check considering data since 1990 and increasing the number of emerging countries. The result supports evidence that improvement of domestic financial system allows an increase of capital flow and a decrease of sudden stops probability. Estimates also indicate that domestic fundamentals are as important as global factors in explaining capital flows and sudden stops episodes. This fact supports public policies that improve the development and strength of domestic financial system in emerging economies and stress the government role in attracting external capital.