第四次工业革命、技术进步与青年就业:南亚视角

South Asia Economic Journal Pub Date : 2020-03-01 DOI:10.1177/1391561420914187

F. Khatun, Syed Yusuf Saadat

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引用次数: 3

摘要

技术进步可以用机器取代工人，但也可以创造新的就业机会。因此，问题的关键在于技术进步的速度与教育机构赋予工人适当技能的速度之间的竞赛。对于南亚地区的国家来说，在第四次工业革命的背景下，为青年创造就业机会将是一项挑战。本文以孟加拉国、不丹、印度、尼泊尔、巴基斯坦和斯里兰卡六个南亚国家为研究对象，研究了技术进步对青年失业的影响。面板工具变量模型估计的结果表明，较低的中学完成率与未就业、未受教育或未接受培训的青年比例呈正相关关系，而资本劳动比率则呈正相关关系。然而，由于较低中学完成率系数的大小大于资本劳动比率系数的大小，因此可以得出结论，只要受教育程度高到足以抵消技术进步的影响，教育将在南亚赢得与技术的竞争。Jel: e24, j01, j13, j64

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Fourth Industrial Revolution, Technological Advancement and Youth Employment: A South Asian Perspective

Technological advancement can displace workers with machines, but also create new jobs. Hence, at the crux of the matter lies a race between the rate of technological advancement and the pace at which educational institutions can empower workers with the right skills. For the countries of the South Asian region, generating jobs for youth will prove to be a challenge in the backdrop of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. This paper investigates the impact of technological advancement on youth unemployment in the context of six South Asian countries, namely, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The results of the panel instrumental variables model estimations show that lower secondary completion rate has a negative relationship and capital–labour ratio has a positive relationship with the share of youth not in employment, education or training. However, since the magnitude of the coefficient of the lower secondary completion rate is greater than the magnitude of the coefficient of the capital–labour ratio, it is concluded that education will win the race against technology in South Asia, as long as the educational attainment rates are high enough to offset the impact of technical progress. JEL: E24, J01, J13, J64

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来源期刊

South Asia Economic Journal Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all)

CiteScore

1.10

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The South Asian nations have progressively liberalized their economies in recent years in an effort to integrate with the world economy. They have also taken steps to enhance multilateral and regional economic integration. Even though the South Asian economies have grown at an average rate of more than 5 per cent over the last few years, roughly 40 per cent of their people still live below the poverty line. Hence, the South Asian region continues to face many challenges of economic and social development. The South Asia Economic Journal (SAEJ) is designed as a forum for informed debate on these issues, which are of vital importance to the people of the region who comprise one-sixth of the world’s population. The peer-reviewed journal is devoted to economic analysis and policy options aimed at promoting cooperation among the countries comprising South Asia. It also discusses South Asia’s position on global economic issues, its relations with other regional groupings and its response to global developments. We also welcome contributions to inter-disciplinary analysis on South Asia. As a refereed journal, SAEJ carries articles by scholars, economic commentators,policy-makers and officials, from both the private and public sectors. Our aim is to create a vibrant research space to explore the multidimensional economic issues of concern to scholars working on South Asia. Among the issues debated in relation to South Asia are: - the implications of global economic trends; - the issues and challenges by WTO; - approaches to industrialization and development; - the role of regional institutions such as the SAARC; - the relationship between SAARC and other regional economic groupings such as ASEAN; - the implications of economic liberalization for trade and investment in the region; - new initiatives that can be launched to enhance economic cooperation among the South Asian countries both on a bilateral and a regional basis.