The uncertain costs of waste disposal and resource recovery

Principles of economic evaluation previously developed are applied to a case study of the available options for waste disposal or resource recovery from solid waste. The dominant feature in any such analysis at a preliminary stage of planning is the uncertainty in the cost and revenue estimates. It is shown how this uncertainty can be explicitly included, with sensitivity analysis used to isolate the critical parameters and risk analysis to examine the range of probable costs. The results of the case study suggest that, of the thirty options studied, landfill at a local site or the use of pulverized waste directly as a fuel are currently the cheapest, followed by indirect landfill or the production of a solid refuse-derived fuel. Other options, including incineration and pyrolysis, appear currently uncompetitive in economic terms.