先前存在的不平等和社会环境变化对生命恢复的纵向影响:1995年神户地震和2011年东日本大地震恢复研究结果

Shigeo Tatsuki, Fuminori Kawami
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引用次数: 0

摘要

近50年的灾害研究成果已经积累起来,研究了先前存在的脆弱性/不平等以及事件后的环境变化如何影响长期恢复过程。虽然以前的大多数研究都是基于横断面调查结果,但最近报道了基于纵向调查的研究。通过跟踪个体恢复的轨迹,纵向研究允许对与更好的恢复相关的因素进行更严格的分析。他们还可以提供基于因果推理分析的结果,为影响恢复的因素提供更高水平的证据。本文回顾了1995年阪神- awaji大地震和2011年东日本大地震后10年的纵向研究结果。研究结果可分为两大类:(1)相关性研究,研究与复苏轨迹的特定模式相关的因素,如停滞;(2)因果推理研究,提供特定因素对更好的复苏轨迹的影响的证据。在此基础上,提出了一个改进的长期灾难恢复过程模型。该模型的关键点表明,存在预先存在的脆弱性/不平等和灾后社会环境变化,这些变化对个人和集体恢复的主观和客观衡量都产生了纵向影响。目前的审查显示了一些先前存在的脆弱性/不平等变量,如老年人家庭规模较小、女户主、精神和/或身体健康问题、残疾、灾害造成的失业、低收入和缺乏社会支持网络。该综述还将基于领域知识的推断扩展到那些特征/特征未被公开覆盖的个体。关于灾后社会环境的变化,住房、身心健康、生计以及社区和个人社会关系的改善显示出导致向上恢复轨迹的证据。以中国社区恢复为例,说明了这些预测变量的作用。最后,本文回顾了灾案管理的引入如何加快了住房重建的步伐,缩小了贫富之间的住房重建差距。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Longitudinal impacts of pre-existing inequalities and social environmental changes on life recovery: Results of the 1995 Kobe Earthquake and the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake recovery studies
Nearly 50 years of disaster research findings have been accumulated on how pre-existing vulnerability/inequality as well as post-event environmental changes affect the long-term recovery process. While most previous studies have been based on cross-sectional survey results, more recently, studies based on longitudinal surveys have been reported. By following the trajectories of individual recoveries, longitudinal studies allow for a more rigorous analysis of factors related to better recovery. They can also provide findings based on causal inference analysis with a higher level of evidence for factors affecting recovery. This article reviews the results from longitudinal studies conducted over a 10-year period after the 1995 Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake and the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, respectively. The findings are integrated into two broad categories: (1) correlational studies, which investigated factors associated with specific patterns of recovery trajectories, such as stagnation, and (2) causal inference studies, in which evidence is provided on the effect of specific factors on better recovery trajectories. Based on these reviews, a refined model of long-term disaster recovery processes is proposed. The key point of the model illustrates that there are pre-existing vulnerabilities/inequalities and post-disaster social environmental changes that make a longitudinal impact upon both subjective and objective measures of individual and collective recovery. The current review showed such pre-existing vulnerability/inequality variables as smaller size households with older aged, female heads of the household, mental and/or physical health issues, disabilities, unemployment due to disaster, low income, and a lack of social support network. The review also extends domain-knowledge-based inferences to those individuals whose traits/characteristics were not overtly covered. Regarding post-disaster social environmental changes, the improvements in housing, physical and mental health, livelihood as well as community and personal social ties showed evidence to cause upward recovery trajectories. A case study of Chinese community recovery was presented as an example of how these predictor variables were acted upon. Finally, this article reviews how the introduction of disaster case management has accelerated the pace of housing reconstruction and closed the housing reconstruction gap between the haves and have-nots.
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