Long-term energy-environment-economic programming under carbon neutrality target: a study on China’s regional energy transition pathways and CO2 mitigation strategies

ABSTRACT Carbon neutrality is one of the key issues in mitigating global climate change. The carbon neutrality process accelerates the global energy transformation from fossil energy to renewable energy. Among the main indicators related to carbon neutrality proposed by the Chinese government, those directly related to energy include carbon emission intensity, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption, and the total installed capacity of wind and solar power generation. It can be seen that the transformation of energy development is crucial for realizing carbon neutrality. Meanwhile, the correlation between carbon neutrality and economic development is not antagonistic. On the contrary, carbon neutrality can not only enhance the quality and efficiency of traditional industries but also improve the overall development of society. Therefore, the coordinated and sustainable developments of the energy - economy- environment (3E) system is the priority for achieving the target of carbon neutrality. However, the impact of carbon neutrality on regional development requires long-term consideration, which increases the difficulties of comprehensive planning. In this study, a long-term comprehensive programming model of regional energy and economic development under carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets was established. A carbon neutrality assessment indicator (CNAI) framework was constructed to assess the effect of carbon neutrality actions in different regions. Meanwhile, a LEAP model was developed to simulate energy demand and carbon emissions. The multi-target weights determined by assessment results of CNAI and the parameters range set by LEAP model were the basis of the multi-objective optimization model to support regional development. Furthermore, the proposed method was applied to Shaanxi province in China, which offered quantitative targets and suggestions for energy structure transformation and industrial structure adjustment. The results show that coal and oil will account for 6.25% of the total energy consumption and the proportion of secondary industry will drop to 25.40% by 2060. The method established in this study provides a new scientific approach for resolving multi-objective trade-offs in long-term programming and determining a reasonable optimization range for regional development under climate mitigation policies.