金融部门发展对增长的影响:以中东和北非国家为例

Medjahed Kenza, Gherbi Nacer Salah Eddine
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引用次数: 22

摘要

本研究旨在考察金融发展对中东和北非国家经济增长的影响。该研究考虑了一些衡量金融发展的指标,包括:私人信贷与GDP、M2/GDP、商业银行资产与商业银行资产和中央银行资产总额的比率。我们还将实际GDP增长率作为经济增长的因变量和少数几个核心控制变量。本研究还对11个中东和北非国家的分裂样本采用了1980-2012年的每个指标的面板时间序列数据。为了衡量影响,本研究采用混合平均组(PMG)、平均组(MG)和动态固定效应(DFE)估计量的面板自回归分布滞后(ARDL)框架对数据进行分析。从PMG估计得到的结果表明,金融中介机构在短期和长期对MENA国家的增长率有负面影响。本文最后指出了改善中东和北非国家金融发展的方向,通过实施更多的金融改革来促进金融部门的竞争和金融结构扩张,这反映在金融服务质量和数量的改善上。另一方面,采取进一步措施创造适当的法律环境,可能进一步帮助中东和北非国家通过最大限度地发挥金融体系在实体部门的潜在作用,获得最大利益。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Effect of the Financial Sector development on Growth: The case of the MENA Countries

This research aims to examine the impact of financial development on economic growth in the context of the MENA countries. The study considers a number of measures of financial development that are: private credit to GDP, M2/GDP, the ratio of commercial bank assets to the total of commercial bank assets and central bank assets. We also take growth rate of real GDP as dependent variable and few core control variables of economic growth. This study employs as well panel time series data over the year of 1980-2012 for each indicator for a split sample of 11 MENA countries. In order to measure the impact, this study analyzes the data by applying panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework of pooled mean group (PMG), mean group (MG) and Dynamic fixed effect (DFE) estimators. The result obtained from PMG estimators demonstrates that the financial intermediary has a negative effect on the growth rate in the MENA countries in the short and long run. The paper concludes by pointing out directions to improve financial development in the MENA countries by applying more financial reforms to promote competition in the financial sector and financial structure expansion that reflects in the improvement of the quality and quantity of financial services. On the other hand, taking further steps to create an appropriate legal environment may further help the MENA countries to reap the utmost benefits by maximizing the potential role of the financial system in the real sector.

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