解决鄂比湾卡门尼角海平面预报问题的方法

IF 1.6 4区 地球科学 Q4 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
G. N. Voinov, N. Golovin, N. Kubyshkin, M. Kulakov, A. A. Skutin, K. Smirnov, O. Khaimina
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引用次数: 0

摘要

自从Novoportovsky码头(被称为“北极门”)开始运营全年石油运输以来,Ob ' Bay Сape Kamenny地区的短期海平面预测问题变得非常重要。从码头装载石油的油轮必须通过位于北部的相对较浅的水域,这限制了船只的吃水。因此,需要对码头油轮装载的最低理论水位进行短期水位预报。利用浮标水位计和卫星数据传输通道进行全年每小时的观测,以便在卡门尼角地区直接进行快速的水位计监测。2016-2021年Kamenny角地区水位观测的调和分析结果显示,在年周期中,波浪М2的振幅和相位具有显著的季节变化,并且由于Ob ' Bay的各种冰况(轻、中、重),它们的年际变化也很明显。在这些结果的基础上,每月月底对过去一个月的观测数据进行处理和分析。根据这些结果,确定了与实际冰况有关的谐波常数的电流值,并对下个月的潮汐进行了计算。总水位预测值的计算由计算潮汐和利用水冰联合循环三维水动力模型(AARI-IOCM)对非周期性水位波动的短期(提前期5天)预报组成。在预报准备的最后阶段,通常相对于有条件的长期平均值计算的预测水位被绑定到最低的理论水位(根据液位计的当前值),并传递给码头的操作员和油轮。卡门尼角地区每小时的水位观测和水位预报自2017年以来一直在进行,目前仍在继续。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Approach to solving the problem of sea level forecasting off Cape Kamenny in the Ob’ Bay
The problem of short-term sea level forecasting in the area of Сape Kamenny in the Ob’ Bay has become important since the Novoportovsky terminal (known as “Arctic Gate”) began operating for year-round oil shipment. The tankers loading the oil from the terminal have to pass through relatively shallow waters, located to the north, limiting the vessels draft. Thereby a short-term water level forecast is required relative to the lowest theoretical level for tankers loading at the terminal. The year-round hourly observations using buoy level gauges with a satellite channel of data transmission are organized for quick level monitoring directly in the area of Cape Kamenny. The results of the harmonic analysis of water level observations in the area of Cape Kamenny for 2016–2021 showed significant seasonal variability of amplitudes and phases of the wave М2 in the annual cycle, as well as their interannual variability due to various ice conditions of the Ob’ Bay (light, medium, heavy). Based on these results, the processing and analysis of observations data over the last month are performed by the end of each month. According to these results, the current values of harmonic constants, dependent on actual ice conditions are specified and calculation of the tide is carried out for the next month. The calculation of the forecast values of the total level is composed of calculated tide and short term (with a lead time of up to 5 days) forecast of non-periodic level fluctuations using the three-dimensional hydrodynamic model of joint water and ice circulation AARI-IOCM. At the final stage of the forecast preparation, the predicted level, usually calculated relative to the conditional long term average annual value, is bound to the lowest theoretical level (according to the current values of the level gauge) and transferred to the operator of the terminal and to the tanker. The hourly observations of water level in the area of Cape Kamenny and level forecasting have been carried out since 2017 and are still continuing.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.00
自引率
5.00%
发文量
37
审稿时长
7 months
期刊介绍: The mission of Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research (AAAR) is to advance understanding of cold region environments by publishing original scientific research from past, present and future high-latitude and mountain regions. Rapid environmental change occurring in cold regions today highlights the global importance of this research. AAAR publishes peer-reviewed interdisciplinary papers including original research papers, short communications and review articles. Many of these papers synthesize a variety of disciplines including ecology, climatology, geomorphology, glaciology, hydrology, paleoceanography, biogeochemistry, and social science. Papers may be uni- or multidisciplinary but should have interdisciplinary appeal. Special thematic issues and proceedings are encouraged. The journal receives contributions from a diverse group of international authors from academia, government agencies, and land managers. In addition the journal publishes opinion pieces, book reviews and in memoria. AAAR is associated with the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR) the oldest active research institute at the University of Colorado Boulder.
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