Medical and social indicators of the reproductive potential of the female population of the region (on the example of the Republic of Tatarstan)

Aim. To analyze the dynamic changes in medical and social indicators of the reproductive potential of the female popu­lation, markers of trends in the formation of the medical and demographic process in the region. Methods. The study was conducted on the basis of an analysis of literary sources that determine the general trend in the demographic situation in the country, as well as information from statistical collections of the Federal State Statistics Service and the Ministry of Health of Russia and Tatarstan. The analytical and statistical methods (descriptive statistics, student criterion, trend analysis) were used in the study. Results. It was revealed that the fertility rate of women living in rural areas decreased by dynamics (between 1991 and 2017, from 79.9 to 42.3 per 1000 women aged 15–49; p <0.05). Before 2014, the indicator for rural residents was higher than that for urban women. Since 2015, the trend has been reversed: among urban women it has become higher than among those living in rural areas, which correlates with the birth rate in urban and rural areas. Percentage of live births from 1991 to 2017 in women of early reproductive age (up to 20 years) decreased among urban women from 11.3 to 3.7% (p <0.05), among rural women from 10.0 to 5.8% (p <0.05); among urban women in the age group 20–24 years from 35.4 to 27.1% (p <0.05), among rural women of the same age from 40.9 to 34.2% (p <0.05). In the observed period, percentage of live births among women of the older reproductive age increased both among residents of cities and in rural areas. Percentage of births by birth order was changed: in urban areas accounted for 55.9% of the first child, in rural areas — 44.3%; for the second child — 35.1% and 34.2%, respectively; for third and more children — 9 and 21.5%. Conclusion. The analysis of medical and social indicators of the reproductive potential of the female population and markers of trends in the formation of the medical and demographic process in the region suggests a decrease in ferti­lity rate (fertility) with an increase in the mean age of women at childbirth.