评估2017年俄勒冈州鹰溪大火的抑制和修复支出的吸收和经济影响

Danny Politoski, Ruth Dittrich, Max Nielsen-Pincus
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引用次数: 1

摘要

在过去的几十年里,美国发生大型野火的频率有所增加,更多的社区需要为未来不可避免的野火做好准备。在本文中,我们研究了2017年俄勒冈鹰溪火灾的灭火和火灾后修复支出对当地和区域经济的影响。鹰溪大火的独特之处在于,它发生在一个大城市波特兰附近,沿着一条重要的交通走廊,84号州际公路。我们发现,维修费用由地方和区域县承担的比例为85%,而抑制费用由地方和区域县承担的比例为26%。我们使用投入产出模型IMPLAN量化了这种支出的更广泛的经济影响。抑制支出创造了400万美元的总经济产出(初始投入为240万美元),而维修支出在两年内每年创造了1400万美元的经济产出(初始投入为1450万美元)。研究意义:我们的研究说明了2017年俄勒冈州鹰溪大火导致的野火相关支出对社区的地方和区域经济影响;各县受到灭火和火灾后修复支出的积极影响,因为其中一些支出通过地方和区域经济循环。维修支出比抑制支出具有更高的地方和区域吸收,但我们发现两者的乘数效应大致相同。我们还发现,在鹰溪火灾的情况下,维修支出和灭火支出都是高度专业化的,获得合同资金的公司相对较少。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Assessing the Absorption and Economic Impact of Suppression and Repair Spending of the 2017 Eagle Creek Fire, Oregon
The frequency of large wildfires in the US has increased over the past few decades, and more communities will need to prepare for the inevitability of wildfire in the future. In this article, we examine the local and regional economic impact of fire suppression and postfire repair spending for the 2017 Oregon Eagle Creek fire. The Eagle Creek fire is unique in that it occurred close to a large metropolitan area, Portland, and along an important transportation corridor, Interstate 84. We found that the proportion of repair spending absorbed by local and regional counties was 85%, whereas 26% of suppression spending was absorbed by local and regional counties. We quantified the wider economic impact of this spending using the input-output model, IMPLAN. Suppression spending created a total economic output of $4 million (initial input $2.4 million) while repair spending created an economic output of $14 million per year over two years (initial input $14.5 million). Study Implications: Our study illustrates local and regional economic impacts to communities from wildfire-related spending as a result of the Eagle Creek fire in Oregon in 2017; counties were positively affected by fire suppression and postfire repair spending as some of this spending circulated through local and regional economies. Repair spending had a much higher local and regional absorption than suppression spending, but we found the multiplier effect to be about the same for both. We also found both repair spending and suppression spending to be highly specialized for the case of the Eagle Creek fire with relative few firms receiving contract funding.
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