Terrestrial Phosphorus Cycling: Responses to Climatic Change

Phosphorus (P) limits productivity in many ecosystems and has the potential to constrain the global carbon sink. The magnitude of these effects depends on how climate change and rising CO2 affect P cycling. Some effects are well established. First, P limitation often constrains CO2 fertilization, and rising CO2 often exacerbates P limitation. Second, P limitation and P constraints to CO2 fertilization are more common in warmer and wetter sites. Models that couple P cycling to vegetation generally capture these outcomes. However, due largely to differences between short-term and long-term dynamics, the patterns observed across climatic gradients do not necessarily indicate how climate change over years to decades will modify P limitation. These annual-to-decadal effects are not well understood. Furthermore, even for the well-understood patterns, much remains to be learned about the quantitative details, mechanisms, and drivers of variability. The interface between empirical and modeling work is particularly ripe for development. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, Volume 54 is November 2023. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.