{"title":"三态系统的二态模型可用性估计误差","authors":"Yoichi Watanabe","doi":"10.1016/0143-8174(87)90100-4","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Errors in steady-state availability estimation by 2-state models of one-unit systems which can be represented by 3-state Markovian models are evaluated. It is found that, except for very specific cases, the 2-state models result in unacceptably large error for the case in which degraded systems are not repaired; hence, multistate models should be used. On the other hand, the 2-state models can present a reasonable accuracy for the cases in which degraded systems are repaired. It is recommended that analyst select better models (2-state or 3-state models) by first estimating the model errors as well as the error due to data uncertainty.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101070,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering","volume":"18 3","pages":"Pages 223-235"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"1987-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/0143-8174(87)90100-4","citationCount":"7","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Errors in availability estimation by 2-state models of 3-state systems\",\"authors\":\"Yoichi Watanabe\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/0143-8174(87)90100-4\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Errors in steady-state availability estimation by 2-state models of one-unit systems which can be represented by 3-state Markovian models are evaluated. It is found that, except for very specific cases, the 2-state models result in unacceptably large error for the case in which degraded systems are not repaired; hence, multistate models should be used. On the other hand, the 2-state models can present a reasonable accuracy for the cases in which degraded systems are repaired. It is recommended that analyst select better models (2-state or 3-state models) by first estimating the model errors as well as the error due to data uncertainty.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":101070,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Reliability Engineering\",\"volume\":\"18 3\",\"pages\":\"Pages 223-235\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"1987-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/0143-8174(87)90100-4\",\"citationCount\":\"7\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Reliability Engineering\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0143817487901004\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Reliability Engineering","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0143817487901004","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Errors in availability estimation by 2-state models of 3-state systems
Errors in steady-state availability estimation by 2-state models of one-unit systems which can be represented by 3-state Markovian models are evaluated. It is found that, except for very specific cases, the 2-state models result in unacceptably large error for the case in which degraded systems are not repaired; hence, multistate models should be used. On the other hand, the 2-state models can present a reasonable accuracy for the cases in which degraded systems are repaired. It is recommended that analyst select better models (2-state or 3-state models) by first estimating the model errors as well as the error due to data uncertainty.
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