Early warning methods on the carrying capacity of regional groundwater resources

Studies on the carrying capacity of traditional groundwater resources mainly focus on a comprehensive evaluation, and this paper provides quantitative prediction and early warning on the carrying capacity of groundwater resources, which is important for groundwater management and protection. This study constructed an early warning indicator system for the carrying capacity of groundwater resources based on an analysis of the factors affecting the carrying capacity, established an early warning method on the carrying capacity of groundwater resources, determined the early warning grades of Henan Province and various cities from 2023 to 2025, and analyzed the spatial distribution pattern. The results showed that the early warning grades of Henan Province from 2023 to 2025 were mild warnings. In the subsystems, the early warning grades of the groundwater resources and economic society systems were mild warnings, while the early warning grades of the ecological environment system were moderate warnings. The early warning grades of the carrying capacity of groundwater resources in all cities were basically mild or moderate warnings, and they were on a downward trend. This study establishes an early warning method on the carrying capacity of groundwater resources that includes the selection of early warning indicators, prediction of indicators, and determination of the early warning grades which can be a reference for other regions.