Gang Activity in the Neighborhood: Fear of Assault or Robbery in the Northern Triangle

Abstract A vast literature suggests that fear of crime represents a socially significant dimension of violence in different research settings. However, fear of crime has been insufficiently studied in Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. These countries comprise the Northern Triangle, a region significantly affected by the pervasiveness of criminal gangs, and very high levels of violence. In this study, we aim to identify vulnerable populations in the region by examining differences in fear of assault or robbery in the neighborhood by different levels of perceived gang activity in neighborhoods, sex, age, and ethno-racial characteristics using survey data. We find evidence of a direct association between fear of assault or robbery and the perception of gang activity in neighborhoods. We also find that women, people aged 30 and over, dark-skinned individuals, and individuals who self-identify as indigenous have greater risks of feeling unsafe in the Northern Triangle. These findings should be useful as evidence to problematize any potential designation of Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras as safe destinations –an anti-immigration strategy promoted by the Trump administration– according to the U.S. Immigration and Nationality Act, and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees antidiscrimination criteria.