A trans-national comparison of stock market movements and related social media chatter during the COVID-19 pandemic

ABSTRACT The outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic first identified in 2019 has had long-term ramifications across global financial markets. We have seen stock markets across countries falling to historical lows and then recovering back during the pandemic. Prior research has established that human emotions can significantly influence financial markets. In particular, social media discussions or online Word-of-mouth (OWoM) minutely reflect public emotions and opinions associated with global market volatility. In this study, we use a quantitative approach to explore the relationship between discussions in twitter, a popular micro-blogging online platform and stock market performance across different countries, in order to understand the disaster-triggered behavioural responses of common investors across the globe. We analyse the association of national stock-indices, sentiment polarity and discussion subjectivity in Covid-19-related tweets originating in India, US, Italy, UK, Australia, Nigeria and South Africa during February 2020– January 2021 period. Using a combination of multiple analytics methods, our study examines: (i) linear and lagged association between OWoM and market performance; and (ii) heterogeneity in the OWoM-market relationship across the seven countries. Our results show weak but statistically significant correlation between OWoM subjectivity and polarity and stock market returns across countries. Our findings also show differential temporal association of OWoM and market returns across countries. Our study shows stock market connectedness between pairs of countries, some simultaneously varying while others varying with a time lag, and the strength of such connectedness increases during global disasters such as the COVID-19 pandemic.