基于系统动力学模型的中国铜需求预测:2016-2030年

Jianbo Yang, Xin Li, Qunyi Liu
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引用次数: 5

摘要

本文假设中国经济将发展为高、中、低三种情景,并对2016 - 2030年中国GDP总量、人口、人均GDP等经济社会指标进行预测。然后,结合系统动力学模型、ARIMA模型预测和倒u型经验模型对2016 - 2030年中国铜资源需求进行预测。结果表明:2016-2030年中国铜需求增速明显放缓。2025-2030年,中国铜资源需求平稳,进入需求增长平台。2030年后,中国的铜资源量将进入缓慢下降期。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
China's Copper Demand Forecasting Based on System Dynamics Model: 2016-2030
This paper assumes that China's economy will be developing high, medium and low scenarios, and forecasts economic and social indicators such as total GDP, population and per capita GDP in China from 2016 to 2030. Then, predicted the demand of copper resources in China from 2016 to 2030 by the combination of system dynamics model, ARIMA model prediction and inverted U-type empirical model. The results show that: China's copper demand growth slowed down significantly from 2016-2030. From 2025-2030, China's copper resource demand is stable, into the platform of demand growth. 2030 years later, China's copper resource dem and will enter a slow decline.
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来源期刊
Journal of Residuals Science & Technology
Journal of Residuals Science & Technology 环境科学-工程:环境
自引率
0.00%
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0
审稿时长
>36 weeks
期刊介绍: The international Journal of Residuals Science & Technology (JRST) is a blind-refereed quarterly devoted to conscientious analysis and commentary regarding significant environmental sciences-oriented research and technical management of residuals in the environment. The journal provides a forum for scientific investigations addressing contamination within environmental media of air, water, soil, and biota and also offers studies exploring source, fate, transport, and ecological effects of environmental contamination.
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