劳动力资源和俄罗斯人口结构的异常反映了俄罗斯联邦的军事侵略

IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS
V. Korolkov, Olena Ye. Borysenko, O. Gubar
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文考察了俄罗斯联邦劳动力资源和人口结构的结构性变化,其经济潜力和填补GDP的来源。经确定,俄罗斯联邦从石油和天然气出口中获得收入,并将其用于发展双重技术和生产军事产品。已经确定的是,俄罗斯联邦利用其军事潜力进行武装冲突,夺取和吞并其他国家的领土,或建立不被承认的领土集团,这些领土集团不能发展自己的经济,实际上成为俄罗斯联邦的殖民地,俄罗斯联邦制定其法律,并在其领土上部署其军事特遣队。这种政策使俄罗斯联邦不仅可以占领领土,而且可以占领企业,甚至可以将人口纳入其组成,从而改善其人口结构。武装冲突伴随着人员损失,但根据俄罗斯的统计,在入侵乌克兰之前,人员损失并不大,将被吞并领土的人口纳入俄罗斯联邦只是改善了人口统计。本文建立了一个以人口出生信息为基础,考虑人口成长和自然死亡特征,按年龄划分人口构成的模型。使用这个模型,可以按年龄组计算整个人口的人口规模,也可以分别计算男性和女性的人口规模。在这一模型的帮助下,根据1946年以来的年出生率信息并考虑到每个年龄段的死亡率,构建了按年龄组划分的人口构成。本文将截至2022年1月1日的各年龄段人口构成数据与借助该模型获得的数据进行了比较。比较结果显示,2002年、2010年和2020年的人口普查所得的人口构成数据存在异常。第一个异常表现在官方统计数据显示,截至2022年1月1日,15至50岁的人口超过了相应年份的出生人数。人口迁移统计数据并没有证实这种迁移。人们发现,这可能是组织普查过程中的系统错误。第二个反常现象是50岁以上年龄组的人口显著减少,大大超过了人口的自然死亡率。据确定,这可能是过去时期武装冲突期间人口损失的结果。第三个反常之处是,俄罗斯联邦通过出售石油和天然气获得了额外收入,却没有把这些收入用于改善本国人民的福利,而是用于生产杀人武器,进行军事装备贸易,并利用这些收入来执行自己的政策,即夺取、吞并领土,或建立不被承认的领土集团,这些领土集团无法形成自己的经济,实际上成为俄罗斯联邦的殖民地。它确定这种战略对世界是恐怖主义,对本国人民是种族灭绝。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
LABOR RESOURCES AND ANOMALIES OF RUSSIAN DEMOGRAPHY AS A REFLECTION OF THE MILITARY AGGRESSION OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
The article examines structural shifts in the labor resources and demography of the Russian Federation, its economic potential and sources of filling the GDP. It was determined that the Russian Federation has income from the export of oil and gas, which it uses for the development of dual technologies and the production of military products. It was established that the Russian Federation uses its military potential to conduct armed conflicts, seize and annex the territories of other countries, or create unrecognized territorial groups that cannot develop their own economy and actually become colonies of the Russian Federation, which dictates its laws and places its military contingent on their territories. Such a policy allows the Russian Federation to seize not only territories, but also enterprises and even include the population in its composition, thereby, improving its demography. Armed conflicts are accompanied by human losses, but according to Russian statistics, before the invasion of Ukraine, the losses were not significant, and the inclusion of the population of the annexed territories into the Russian Federation only improved demography. The article builds a model that allows forming the composition of the population by age groups based on information about the birth of the population and taking into account the features of growing up and natural mortality. Using this model, it is possible to calculate the population size by age groups both for the entire population and separately for men and women. With the help of this model, the composition of the population by age groups was constructed based on information on annual birth rate starting from 1946 and taking into account the mortality rate at each age. The paper compares data on the composition of the population by age groups as of January 1, 2022 and data obtained with the help of the model. The comparison revealed anomalies in the data on the demographic composition of the population obtained from the censuses conducted in 2002, 2010 and 2020. The first anomaly is manifested in the fact that the population aged 15 to 50 years, given by official statistics as of 01/01/2022, exceeds the number of births in the corresponding years. Population migration statistics do not confirm such a movement. It was found that this could be a systematic error in the organization of the census processes. The second anomaly is a significant decrease in the population in the age groups over 50 years, which significantly exceeds the natural mortality of the population. It was determined that this may be the result of population losses during armed conflicts of past periods. The third anomaly is based on the fact that having additional revenues from the sale of oil and gas, the Russian Federation directs them not to improving the welfare of its own people, but to the production of murder weapons, trades in military equipment and uses it to carry out its own policy of seizing territories, annexing them, or creating unrecognized territorial groups that are unable form their own economy and become actually colonies of the Russian Federation. It was determined that such a strategy is terrorist for the world and genocide for its own people.
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EGE ACADEMIC REVIEW
EGE ACADEMIC REVIEW ECONOMICS-
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