{"title":"新型冠状病毒病例计数模型的新统计方法。","authors":"M El-Morshedy, Emrah Altun, M S Eliwa","doi":"10.1007/s40096-021-00390-9","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This study proposes new statistical tools to analyze the counts of the daily coronavirus cases and deaths. Since the daily new deaths exhibit highly over-dispersion, we introduce a new two-parameter discrete distribution, called <i>discrete generalized Lindley</i>, which enables us to model all kinds of dispersion such as under-, equi-, and over-dispersion. Additionally, we introduce a new count regression model based on the proposed distribution to investigate the effects of the important risk factors on the counts of deaths for OECD countries. Three data sets are analyzed with proposed models and competitive models. Empirical findings show that air pollution, the proportion of obesity, and smokers in a population do not affect the counts of deaths for OECD countries. The interesting empirical result is that the countries with having higher alcohol consumption have lower counts of deaths.</p>","PeriodicalId":35685,"journal":{"name":"Round Table","volume":"89 1","pages":"37-50"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7960885/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A new statistical approach to model the counts of novel coronavirus cases.\",\"authors\":\"M El-Morshedy, Emrah Altun, M S Eliwa\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s40096-021-00390-9\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>This study proposes new statistical tools to analyze the counts of the daily coronavirus cases and deaths. Since the daily new deaths exhibit highly over-dispersion, we introduce a new two-parameter discrete distribution, called <i>discrete generalized Lindley</i>, which enables us to model all kinds of dispersion such as under-, equi-, and over-dispersion. Additionally, we introduce a new count regression model based on the proposed distribution to investigate the effects of the important risk factors on the counts of deaths for OECD countries. Three data sets are analyzed with proposed models and competitive models. Empirical findings show that air pollution, the proportion of obesity, and smokers in a population do not affect the counts of deaths for OECD countries. The interesting empirical result is that the countries with having higher alcohol consumption have lower counts of deaths.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":35685,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Round Table\",\"volume\":\"89 1\",\"pages\":\"37-50\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7960885/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Round Table\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"100\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40096-021-00390-9\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2021/3/16 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"Social Sciences\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Round Table","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40096-021-00390-9","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2021/3/16 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"Social Sciences","Score":null,"Total":0}
A new statistical approach to model the counts of novel coronavirus cases.
This study proposes new statistical tools to analyze the counts of the daily coronavirus cases and deaths. Since the daily new deaths exhibit highly over-dispersion, we introduce a new two-parameter discrete distribution, called discrete generalized Lindley, which enables us to model all kinds of dispersion such as under-, equi-, and over-dispersion. Additionally, we introduce a new count regression model based on the proposed distribution to investigate the effects of the important risk factors on the counts of deaths for OECD countries. Three data sets are analyzed with proposed models and competitive models. Empirical findings show that air pollution, the proportion of obesity, and smokers in a population do not affect the counts of deaths for OECD countries. The interesting empirical result is that the countries with having higher alcohol consumption have lower counts of deaths.
Round TableSocial Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development
CiteScore
1.70
自引率
0.00%
发文量
77
期刊介绍:
Founded in 1910, The Round Table, Britain"s oldest international affairs journal, provides analysis and commentary on all aspects of international affairs. The journal is the major source for coverage of policy issues concerning the contemporary Commonwealth and its role in international affairs, with occasional articles on themes of historical interest. The Round Table has for many years been a repository of informed scholarship, opinion, and judgement regarding both international relations in general, and the Commonwealth in particular, with authorship and readership drawn from the worlds of government, business, finance and academe.