{"title":"平流层低层风的预测:COSMO有限区域模式的最新进展和应用","authors":"E. Bucchignani","doi":"10.3390/meteorology1030020","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In the last few decades there has been increasing interest in the commercial usage of the stratosphere, especially for Earth observation systems. Stratospheric platforms allow Earth monitoring at a regional scale with persistency toward a limited area. For this reason, accurate meteorological forecasts are needed in order to guarantee stationarity. The main aim of this work is to provide a review of wind prediction techniques in the stratosphere, achieved by the most popular global models, such as ECMWF IFS, NCEP GFS and ICON. Then, the capabilities of the COSMO limited area model to reproduce the wind speed in the stratosphere are evaluated considering a model configuration with very high resolution (about 1 km) over a domain located in Southern Italy, assuming the radio sounding data at Pratica di Mare airport as the reference. Vertical profiles were analyzed for selected days, highlighting good performances, though improvements can be achieved by adopting a fifth-order interpolation of the model data. Finally, monthly wind speed time series for selected heights were post-processed by means of fast Fourier transform, revealing the existence of main frequencies and the presence of a scaling regime and a power law of the form f−β over a broad range of time scales, in the Fourier space. The exponent spectral β is close to the exact 5/3 Kolmogorov value for all the datasets.","PeriodicalId":100061,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Meteorology","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2022-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Wind Predictions in the Lower Stratosphere: State of the Art and Application of the COSMO Limited Area Model\",\"authors\":\"E. Bucchignani\",\"doi\":\"10.3390/meteorology1030020\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"In the last few decades there has been increasing interest in the commercial usage of the stratosphere, especially for Earth observation systems. Stratospheric platforms allow Earth monitoring at a regional scale with persistency toward a limited area. For this reason, accurate meteorological forecasts are needed in order to guarantee stationarity. The main aim of this work is to provide a review of wind prediction techniques in the stratosphere, achieved by the most popular global models, such as ECMWF IFS, NCEP GFS and ICON. Then, the capabilities of the COSMO limited area model to reproduce the wind speed in the stratosphere are evaluated considering a model configuration with very high resolution (about 1 km) over a domain located in Southern Italy, assuming the radio sounding data at Pratica di Mare airport as the reference. Vertical profiles were analyzed for selected days, highlighting good performances, though improvements can be achieved by adopting a fifth-order interpolation of the model data. Finally, monthly wind speed time series for selected heights were post-processed by means of fast Fourier transform, revealing the existence of main frequencies and the presence of a scaling regime and a power law of the form f−β over a broad range of time scales, in the Fourier space. The exponent spectral β is close to the exact 5/3 Kolmogorov value for all the datasets.\",\"PeriodicalId\":100061,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Agricultural Meteorology\",\"volume\":\"19 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-08-29\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Agricultural Meteorology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology1030020\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Agricultural Meteorology","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology1030020","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
在过去的几十年里,人们对平流层的商业用途越来越感兴趣,特别是对地球观测系统。平流层平台允许在区域尺度上对有限区域进行持续的地球监测。因此,需要准确的气象预报来保证平稳性。本研究的主要目的是回顾目前最流行的全球模式(如ECMWF IFS、NCEP GFS和ICON)所实现的平流层风预报技术。然后,以Pratica di Mare机场的无线电探测数据为参考,在意大利南部一个区域以非常高分辨率(约1 km)的模式配置,评估了COSMO有限区域模型再现平流层风速的能力。对选定日期的垂直剖面进行了分析,突出了良好的性能,尽管可以通过对模型数据采用五阶插值来实现改进。最后,通过快速傅立叶变换对选定高度的月风速时间序列进行后处理,揭示了主要频率的存在,以及在广泛的时间尺度范围内傅立叶空间中f−β形式的标度制度和幂律的存在。所有数据集的指数谱β都接近精确的5/3 Kolmogorov值。
Wind Predictions in the Lower Stratosphere: State of the Art and Application of the COSMO Limited Area Model
In the last few decades there has been increasing interest in the commercial usage of the stratosphere, especially for Earth observation systems. Stratospheric platforms allow Earth monitoring at a regional scale with persistency toward a limited area. For this reason, accurate meteorological forecasts are needed in order to guarantee stationarity. The main aim of this work is to provide a review of wind prediction techniques in the stratosphere, achieved by the most popular global models, such as ECMWF IFS, NCEP GFS and ICON. Then, the capabilities of the COSMO limited area model to reproduce the wind speed in the stratosphere are evaluated considering a model configuration with very high resolution (about 1 km) over a domain located in Southern Italy, assuming the radio sounding data at Pratica di Mare airport as the reference. Vertical profiles were analyzed for selected days, highlighting good performances, though improvements can be achieved by adopting a fifth-order interpolation of the model data. Finally, monthly wind speed time series for selected heights were post-processed by means of fast Fourier transform, revealing the existence of main frequencies and the presence of a scaling regime and a power law of the form f−β over a broad range of time scales, in the Fourier space. The exponent spectral β is close to the exact 5/3 Kolmogorov value for all the datasets.