Chapter Four: Europe

ro pe larly its deteriorating relations with several other European states (not least Germany) and renewed interest in a closer relationship with Russia, exacerbated the uncertainty. By the end of 2017, there was still little clarity on how the UK’s exit from the EU would affect security and defence. With ‘Brexit’ due to take effect in March 2019, government officials across EU member states were keen to ensure that it would not negatively affect security and defence cooperation: threat assessments across the continent consistently stressed the need for cooperation to tackle contemporary challenges and risks. The inauguration of Donald Trump as president of the United States left many European leaders uncertain about the durability of the transatlantic bond underpinning European security. Initially vague about NATO’s collective-defence guarantee (enshrined in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty), President Trump appeared to make US commitment contingent on increased European defence spending, notably chiding other leaders on this topic when he opened NATO’s new headquarters in May 2017. Nonetheless, Trump used a speech in Warsaw on 6 July to declare that the US stood ‘firmly behind Article 5’, both in terms of words and actions. Indeed, in its FY2018 budget, the US Department of Defense increased the funding allocated to its European Reassurance Initiative, and continued rotational troop deployments in NATO’s eastern member states. Even so, Trump’s rhetoric gave NATO members pause for thought. Following a meeting of NATO heads of state and government in Brussels, German Chancellor Angela Merkel had concluded on 28 May, with reference to the new US administration and Brexit, that ‘the times in which we could completely rely on others are, to a certain extent, over’ and that ‘we Europeans truly have to take our fate into our own hands’. While her comments were expressed during an election rally and were therefore mostly intended for domestic consumption, they resonated throughout the Alliance, indicating that cohesion remained fragile, despite efforts to galvanise NATO into tackling the challenges posed by a deteriorating security environment on its eastern and southern flanks. Chapter Four Europe