Russia’s game in Belarus: 2020 presidential elections as a checkmate for Lukashenka?

It is sometimes claimed that during his 26 years of rule Lukashenka has acted as a guarantor of Belarusian sovereignty (Preiherman, 2018; Tsikhamirau, 2018). According to this point of view, as long as Lukashenka stays in power, Russia will not be able to fully control Belarus. This paper will argue that although during Lukashenka’s time in office Belarus has avoided deeper integration with Russia within the Union State, the Belarusian regime has failed to reduce the country’s economic dependence on its eastern neighbor. This provided the Kremlin with leverage to control Belarus, compromising its sovereignty. The extent of the leverage became particularly evident in the wake of the 2020 presidential elections when the survival of the Belarusian regime proved to be contingent on Russia’s support. The Kremlin’s generous economic assistance over the last 26 years has created a “sponsored authoritarianism” in Belarus. Lukashenka’s role in it is to ensure that the country will not leave the orbit of Russia’s influence and drift to the West while the Kremlin attempts to realize a soft mode of occupation of Belarus via deep economic and political integration under the auspices of unified supranational bodies. The paper starts by analyzing different phases in Belarus-Russia relations in 2000–2020 and argues that the recent presidential elections in Belarus have become a new critical juncture. The work proceeds with assessing the extent of Russia’s economic leverage over Belarus in 2000–2020 by focusing on three main components: 1) Belarus-Russia bilateral trade 2) Belarus’s energy dependence on Russia 3) Russia’s financial support to Belarus. The paper demonstrates that by the time of the 2020 presidential elections none of these components have been reduced, thus making the Belarusian regime vulnerable to Kremlin’s pressure. The work concludes by discussing the trajectory of Belarus’s future regardless of whether Lukashenka stays in power or leaves office and argues that the Belarusian protests represent both a challenge and an opportunity for the Kremlin.