煤炭项目是亚洲俄罗斯基础设施发展的可能驱动力

IF 0.5 Q3 AREA STUDIES
V. Churashev, N. Suslov, V. Markova, Y. Fridman
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引用次数: 1

摘要

全球脱碳政策、可替代能源的日益普及,以及随之而来的全球能源市场竞争加剧,都加大了煤炭供应商面临的风险,其中包括全球第三大煤炭出口国俄罗斯。本研究基于作者对俄罗斯亚洲地区煤炭项目的数据库、燃料和能源部门发展的政策文件以及对全球燃料消费的预测,提出了到2040年俄罗斯煤炭行业的发展前景。这些情景考虑了脱碳率、能源转型的特点和实施成本。因此,创造了乐观、基线和悲观的情景。基线情景假设全球脱碳率将降低,煤炭能源将在能源平衡中存在至少20年。在执行这一设想的同时,应大幅度提高劳动生产率,使主要生产过程实现技术现代化,开办先进的煤炭加工企业,并达到国际环境标准。与此同时,俄罗斯煤炭项目的出口方向仍将保持不变,主要面向亚太市场。这种情况将刺激西伯利亚和俄罗斯远东地区运输基础设施的发展,对亚洲领土的综合社会经济发展产生积极影响,提高人民的生活质量,有助于政治和经济制度的稳定。研究结果可用于评估俄罗斯亚洲地区大型开发项目的投资冲动。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Coal Projects as a Possible Driver of Infrastructure Development in Asian Russia
The global decarbonisation policy, growing availability of alternative energy sources and, subsequently, intensified competition in the global energy market increase the risks for coal suppliers, including Russia, the world’s third largest exporter of this fuel. Based on the author’s database on coal projects in Asian Russia, policy documents for the fuel and energy sector development and forecasts of global fuel consumption, the study presents the development outlook of the Russian coal industry up to 2040. The scenarios took into consideration the decarbonisation rate, features of the energy transition and implementation costs. As a result, optimistic, baseline and pessimistic scenarios were created. The baseline scenario assumes that the global decarbonisation rate will be reduced and coal energy will be present in the energy balance for at least twenty years. The implementation of this scenario should be accompanied by a radical increase in labour productivity, technological modernisation of the main production processes, the launch of advanced coal processing enterprises, and achieved compliance with international environmental standards. At the same time, the export orientation of Russian coal projects, primarily to the Asia-Pacific market, will remain. This situation will stimulate transport infrastructure development in Siberia and the Russian Far East, positively affect the integrated socio-economic development of Asian territories and improve the quality of life of the population, contributing to the stability of the political and economic system. The findings can be used to assess the investment impulse of large development projects in Asian Russia.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.80
自引率
20.00%
发文量
23
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