到2050年实现净零排放:新西兰可再生能源、技术创新和森林的作用

A. Raihan, Almagul Tuspekova
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引用次数: 32

摘要

新西兰设定了到2050年实现净零排放的目标,这项研究探讨了经济增长、可再生能源使用、技术创新和森林在实现这一目标方面可能发挥的作用。采用动态普通最小二乘(DOLS)技术对1990 - 2021年的时间序列数据进行分析。根据DOLS估算的结果,经济增长每增加1个百分点,二氧化碳排放量就会增加0.24%。此外,从长远来看,可再生能源的使用每增加1%,二氧化碳排放量就会减少0.81%,这表明可再生能源使用系数为负且具有统计学意义。计算出的技术创新长期系数为负,且具有统计学意义,表明技术创新每增加1%,二氧化碳排放量就会减少0.02%。森林面积的长期系数显著负且显著,即森林面积每增加1%,二氧化碳排放量减少4.78%。实证结果表明,随着新西兰经济的增长,其二氧化碳排放量也在增长,但通过越来越多地使用可再生能源、技术创新和可持续森林管理,该国可能会更接近其碳中和的目标。替代估计方法,如完全修正最小二乘(FMOLS)和典型协整回归(CCR),对估计结果没有显著影响。为了使新西兰在2050年达到净零排放的目标,本文提出了以低碳经济为中心的政策思路,促进可再生能源的使用,为技术进步提供资金,以及可持续森林管理。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Towards net zero emissions by 2050: the role of renewable energy, technological innovations, and forests in New Zealand
New Zealand has set a target of net zero emissions by 2050, and this study looks into the role that economic growth, renewable energy use, technological innovation, and forests could play in getting them there. The Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) technique was used to analyze time series data from 1990 to 2021. According to the results of the DOLS estimation, a one-percentage-point increase in economic growth is associated with a 0.24% increase in CO2 emissions. Furthermore, increasing the use of renewable energy by 1% is related with a reduction in CO2 emissions of 0.81 percent over the long run, as indicated by the coefficient of renewable energy use being negative and statistically significant. The calculated long-run coefficient of technical innovation is negative and statistically significant, suggesting that a 1% increase in technological innovation results in a 0.02% reduction in CO2 emissions. The long-run coefficient of forest area is notably negative and significant, which means that increasing forest area by 1% reduces CO2 emissions by 4.78%. The empirical results show that as New Zealand's economy grows, so do its CO2 emissions, but that the country may get closer to its goal of carbon neutrality through the growing use of renewable energy, technological innovation, and sustainable forest management. Alternative estimators, such as fully modified least squares (FMOLS) and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR), do not significantly affect the estimated results. In order for New Zealand to reach its goal of net zero emissions by 2050, this article offers policy ideas centered on a low-carbon economy, the promotion of the use of renewable energy sources, the financing of technical progress, and sustainable forest management.  
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期刊介绍: Journal of environmental science and economics (JESCAE), ISSN: 2832-6032 is an open access peer-reviewed journal that considers articles and reviews articles on all aspects of environmental economics. Aim and Scope Journal of Environmental Science and Economics is an international scholarly refereed research journal that aims to promote the theory and practice of environmental economics, Sustainability research, technological innovation, and economics. A broad outline of the journal''s scope includes; peer-reviewed original research articles, case, and technical reports, reviews and analyses papers, short communications and notes to the editor, in interdisciplinary information on the practice and status of research in environmental science, sustainability, technological innovations, and economics. The main aspects of research areas include, but are not limited to; Environmental pollution control and abatement technology, Sustainable and economic Development, sustainable consumption and Sustainability, Environmental and sustainability assessment, transport and fate of pollutants in the environment, concentrations and dispersion of wastes in air, water, and non-point sources pollution, atmospheric pollutants and trace gases, environmental impact assessment, industrial ecology, ecological and human risk assessment; improved energy management and auditing efficiency and environmental standards and criteria.
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