Using land cover, population, and night light data to assess urban expansion in Kimberley, South Africa

ABSTRACT Information on urban expansion is a significant input in forecasting upcoming land cover and land use changes in a city. This study combines Landsat 8, night-time lights, and population data to assess urban expansion in Kimberley, South Africa from 2013 to 2018. This study used a post-classification change detection approach to measure urban expansion. Urban and non-urban land use classes where the two classes mapped and evaluated for this analysis. Overall, urban expansion from 2013 to 2018 was 15% while the annual urban expansion rate experienced was 0.6%. Night-time lights, calculated from satellite imagery, are increasingly used by social scientists as a proxy for economic activity or economic development. During the period of 2013 to 2018, both the urban night-time lights and the urban population experienced high rates of growth. This study obtained a positive correlation for night-time light and population datasets of 0.51 for 2013 and 0.57 for 2018, to suggest a positive population and lighting increase in the study area. Municipal authorities and policymakers may use this knowledge as feedback during urban and environmental planning.