一种新的准三维滑坡动力学模型:从理论到应用及风险评估

M. Vanneste, F. Løvholt, D. Issler, Zhongqiang Liu, N. Boylan, Jihwan Kim
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引用次数: 4

摘要

海底滑坡可能对近海设施和沿海社区构成重大威胁。它们可以袭击远离发源地的设施,并引发破坏性的海啸。为了评估和量化这种危害,有必要能够在具有现实流变输入参数的复杂海底环境中建立它们的动力学模型。许多海底滑坡涉及粘性粘塑性土壤,这可以用流变模型(如非线性Herschel-Bulkley模型)进行数学描述。为了模拟这些事件,考虑到复杂的测深和流变行为,NGI开发了BingClaw。它结合了浮力、水动力阻力和重塑,这是水下滑坡动力学的关键。BingClaw已经被用来研究世界上一些最大和最复杂的海底滑坡的动力学和海啸产生,比如大约8000年前的斯托尔加滑坡和1929年的大浅滩滑坡和海啸。在这两种情况下,BingClaw都比其他模型更真实地描述了滑坡动力学和引发的海啸。与海啸产生的联系被用来更好地约束滑坡动力学。在这里,我们演示了BingClaw是如何用于地质灾害应用的,包括尝试对与这些应用直接相关的过去的滑坡进行后推,因为通常流变学数据很少或无法从给定的地点获得。我们首先提出了将滑坡模型与实验室实验结果进行比较的基准结果。然后,我们展示了模拟和观察到的海上和陆上应用的滑坡运行之间的比较。陆上应用为验证提供了额外的良好控制的现场研究,适用于高灵敏度的土壤。我们还在一个海上/近岸地质灾害项目中使用了BingClaw,即挪威西部海上的Bjørnafjorden项目。在那里,我们将跳动分析直接与静力和地震边坡稳定性评估联系起来,并将预测的跳动情景用于评估深峡湾(水深约560米)中相互竞争的桥梁概念及其基础。这些研究表明,这种适用于陆上和海上地质灾害评估的新方法可以使用现实流变参数可靠地再现现场观测结果,这在估计潜艇群运动带来的风险时非常重要,特别是在对基础设施的潜在影响方面。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A Novel Quasi-3D Landslide Dynamics Model: From Theory to Applications and Risk Assessment
Submarine landslides can pose a significant threat to offshore installations and coastal communities. They can strike installations far from their origin and generate destructive tsunamis. To assess and quantify this hazard, it is necessary to be able to model their dynamics in complex submarine environments with realistic rheological input parameters. Many submarine landslides involve cohesive visco-plastic soils, which can be described mathematically by rheological models such as the non-linear Herschel–Bulkley model. To model these events, accounting for complex bathymetry and rheological behavior, NGI has developed BingClaw. It incorporates buoyancy, hydrodynamic resistance and remolding, which are crucial for underwater landslide dynamics. BingClaw has been used to study the dynamics and tsunami generation of some of the largest and most complex submarine landslides in the world such as the Storegga Slide about 8000 years ago and the 1929 Grand Banks landslide and tsunami. In both cases, BingClaw provided a far more realistic description of both the landslide dynamics and the induced tsunami than other models. The link to the tsunami generation was used to better constrain the landslide dynamics. Here, we demonstrate how BingClaw is used for geohazard applications, including attempts to hindcast past landslides directly relevant to these applications, as often rheological data are sparse or not available from a given site. We first present benchmark results comparing the landslide model with results from laboratory experiments. Then, we show comparisons between simulations and observed landslide run-out for both offshore and onshore applications. The onshore application provides additional well-controlled field studies for validation, in soils with high sensitivity. We also used BingClaw in an offshore/nearshore geohazard project, namely the Bjørnafjorden project offshore western Norway. There, we linked the run-out analysis directly to static and seismic slope stability evaluations, and the predicted run-out scenarios were used in the assessment of competing bridge concepts and their foundations in the deep fjord (around 560 m water depth). These studies illustrate that this novel method, applicable for onshore and offshore geohazard assessments, can reliably reproduce field observations using realistic rheological parameters, which is important when estimating the risk posed by submarine mass movements, particularly with respect to the potential impact on infrastructure.
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