Rasa Idzelytė, Natalja Čerkasova, Jovita Mėžinė, Toma Dabuleviciene, A. Razinkovas-Baziukas, A. Ertürk, G. Umgiesser
{"title":"耦合水文和水动力模拟在Nemunas河流域-库尔潟湖-波罗的海东南部连续体气候变化影响评价中的应用","authors":"Rasa Idzelytė, Natalja Čerkasova, Jovita Mėžinė, Toma Dabuleviciene, A. Razinkovas-Baziukas, A. Ertürk, G. Umgiesser","doi":"10.5194/os-19-1047-2023","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. We analyse the cumulative impacts of climate change in a complex basin–lagoon–sea system continuum, which covers the Nemunas river basin, Curonian Lagoon, and the southeastern part of the Baltic Sea. A unique, state-of-the-art coupled modelling system was developed using hydrological and hydrodynamic models. The results of four regional downscaled models from the Rossby Centre high-resolution regional atmospheric climate model have been bias-corrected using in situ measurements and were used as forcing to assess the changes that the continuum will undergo until the end of this century. Results show that the Curonian Lagoon will be subjected to higher river\ndischarges that in turn increase the outgoing fluxes into the Baltic Sea.\nThrough these higher fluxes, both the water residence time and saltwater\nintrusion into the lagoon event frequency will decrease. Most of these\nchanges will be more pronounced in the northern part of the lagoon, which is more likely to be influenced by the variations in the Nemunas river\ndischarge. Its delta area may be susceptible to flooding as a result of the\nelevated discharge during winter. The southern part of the lagoon will\nexperience lesser changes. While water temperatures in the entire lagoon and the southeastern Baltic Sea will steadily increase and salinity will\ndecrease, the foreseen changes in the physical characteristics will not cause significant shifts in the ecosystem functioning but may affect the nutrient retention capacity. However, some ecosystem services such as ice fishing are expected to vanish completely due to the loss of ice cover.\n","PeriodicalId":19535,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Science","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.1000,"publicationDate":"2023-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic modelling application for climate change impact assessment in the Nemunas river watershed–Curonian Lagoon–southeastern Baltic Sea continuum\",\"authors\":\"Rasa Idzelytė, Natalja Čerkasova, Jovita Mėžinė, Toma Dabuleviciene, A. Razinkovas-Baziukas, A. Ertürk, G. Umgiesser\",\"doi\":\"10.5194/os-19-1047-2023\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Abstract. We analyse the cumulative impacts of climate change in a complex basin–lagoon–sea system continuum, which covers the Nemunas river basin, Curonian Lagoon, and the southeastern part of the Baltic Sea. A unique, state-of-the-art coupled modelling system was developed using hydrological and hydrodynamic models. The results of four regional downscaled models from the Rossby Centre high-resolution regional atmospheric climate model have been bias-corrected using in situ measurements and were used as forcing to assess the changes that the continuum will undergo until the end of this century. Results show that the Curonian Lagoon will be subjected to higher river\\ndischarges that in turn increase the outgoing fluxes into the Baltic Sea.\\nThrough these higher fluxes, both the water residence time and saltwater\\nintrusion into the lagoon event frequency will decrease. Most of these\\nchanges will be more pronounced in the northern part of the lagoon, which is more likely to be influenced by the variations in the Nemunas river\\ndischarge. Its delta area may be susceptible to flooding as a result of the\\nelevated discharge during winter. The southern part of the lagoon will\\nexperience lesser changes. While water temperatures in the entire lagoon and the southeastern Baltic Sea will steadily increase and salinity will\\ndecrease, the foreseen changes in the physical characteristics will not cause significant shifts in the ecosystem functioning but may affect the nutrient retention capacity. 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Coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic modelling application for climate change impact assessment in the Nemunas river watershed–Curonian Lagoon–southeastern Baltic Sea continuum
Abstract. We analyse the cumulative impacts of climate change in a complex basin–lagoon–sea system continuum, which covers the Nemunas river basin, Curonian Lagoon, and the southeastern part of the Baltic Sea. A unique, state-of-the-art coupled modelling system was developed using hydrological and hydrodynamic models. The results of four regional downscaled models from the Rossby Centre high-resolution regional atmospheric climate model have been bias-corrected using in situ measurements and were used as forcing to assess the changes that the continuum will undergo until the end of this century. Results show that the Curonian Lagoon will be subjected to higher river
discharges that in turn increase the outgoing fluxes into the Baltic Sea.
Through these higher fluxes, both the water residence time and saltwater
intrusion into the lagoon event frequency will decrease. Most of these
changes will be more pronounced in the northern part of the lagoon, which is more likely to be influenced by the variations in the Nemunas river
discharge. Its delta area may be susceptible to flooding as a result of the
elevated discharge during winter. The southern part of the lagoon will
experience lesser changes. While water temperatures in the entire lagoon and the southeastern Baltic Sea will steadily increase and salinity will
decrease, the foreseen changes in the physical characteristics will not cause significant shifts in the ecosystem functioning but may affect the nutrient retention capacity. However, some ecosystem services such as ice fishing are expected to vanish completely due to the loss of ice cover.
期刊介绍:
Ocean Science (OS) is a not-for-profit international open-access scientific journal dedicated to the publication and discussion of research articles, short communications, and review papers on all aspects of ocean science: experimental, theoretical, and laboratory. The primary objective is to publish a very high-quality scientific journal with free Internet-based access for researchers and other interested people throughout the world.
Electronic submission of articles is used to keep publication costs to a minimum. The costs will be covered by a moderate per-page charge paid by the authors. The peer-review process also makes use of the Internet. It includes an 8-week online discussion period with the original submitted manuscript and all comments. If accepted, the final revised paper will be published online.
Ocean Science covers the following fields: ocean physics (i.e. ocean structure, circulation, tides, and internal waves); ocean chemistry; biological oceanography; air–sea interactions; ocean models – physical, chemical, biological, and biochemical; coastal and shelf edge processes; paleooceanography.