耦合水文和水动力模拟在Nemunas河流域-库尔潟湖-波罗的海东南部连续体气候变化影响评价中的应用

IF 4.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Rasa Idzelytė, Natalja Čerkasova, Jovita Mėžinė, Toma Dabuleviciene, A. Razinkovas-Baziukas, A. Ertürk, G. Umgiesser
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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要我们分析了一个复杂的盆地-泻湖-海系统连续体中气候变化的累积影响,该系统覆盖了Nemunas河流域、库尔尼泻湖和波罗的海东南部。一个独特的,最先进的耦合建模系统被开发利用水文和水动力模型。来自罗斯比中心高分辨率区域大气气候模式的四个区域缩小模型的结果已经使用原位测量进行了偏差校正,并被用作评估连续体将经历的变化的强迫值,直到本世纪末。结果表明,库尔斯泻湖将受到更高的河流流量,这反过来又增加了流入波罗的海的通量。通过这些较高的通量,水的停留时间和咸水侵入泻湖的事件频率都将减少。大多数变化在泻湖北部更为明显,那里更有可能受到Nemunas河流量变化的影响。它的三角洲地区可能会受到洪水的影响,因为冬天的流量升高。泻湖南部的变化较小。虽然整个泻湖和波罗的海东南部的水温将稳步上升,盐度将下降,但可预见的物理特征变化不会引起生态系统功能的重大变化,但可能影响营养物质的保留能力。然而,一些生态系统服务,如冰捕鱼,预计将完全消失,由于冰盖的损失。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic modelling application for climate change impact assessment in the Nemunas river watershed–Curonian Lagoon–southeastern Baltic Sea continuum
Abstract. We analyse the cumulative impacts of climate change in a complex basin–lagoon–sea system continuum, which covers the Nemunas river basin, Curonian Lagoon, and the southeastern part of the Baltic Sea. A unique, state-of-the-art coupled modelling system was developed using hydrological and hydrodynamic models. The results of four regional downscaled models from the Rossby Centre high-resolution regional atmospheric climate model have been bias-corrected using in situ measurements and were used as forcing to assess the changes that the continuum will undergo until the end of this century. Results show that the Curonian Lagoon will be subjected to higher river discharges that in turn increase the outgoing fluxes into the Baltic Sea. Through these higher fluxes, both the water residence time and saltwater intrusion into the lagoon event frequency will decrease. Most of these changes will be more pronounced in the northern part of the lagoon, which is more likely to be influenced by the variations in the Nemunas river discharge. Its delta area may be susceptible to flooding as a result of the elevated discharge during winter. The southern part of the lagoon will experience lesser changes. While water temperatures in the entire lagoon and the southeastern Baltic Sea will steadily increase and salinity will decrease, the foreseen changes in the physical characteristics will not cause significant shifts in the ecosystem functioning but may affect the nutrient retention capacity. However, some ecosystem services such as ice fishing are expected to vanish completely due to the loss of ice cover.
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来源期刊
Ocean Science
Ocean Science 地学-海洋学
CiteScore
5.90
自引率
6.20%
发文量
78
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Ocean Science (OS) is a not-for-profit international open-access scientific journal dedicated to the publication and discussion of research articles, short communications, and review papers on all aspects of ocean science: experimental, theoretical, and laboratory. The primary objective is to publish a very high-quality scientific journal with free Internet-based access for researchers and other interested people throughout the world. Electronic submission of articles is used to keep publication costs to a minimum. The costs will be covered by a moderate per-page charge paid by the authors. The peer-review process also makes use of the Internet. It includes an 8-week online discussion period with the original submitted manuscript and all comments. If accepted, the final revised paper will be published online. Ocean Science covers the following fields: ocean physics (i.e. ocean structure, circulation, tides, and internal waves); ocean chemistry; biological oceanography; air–sea interactions; ocean models – physical, chemical, biological, and biochemical; coastal and shelf edge processes; paleooceanography.
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