Miao Cai, Amir Mehdizadeh, Qiong Hu, Mohammad Ali Alamdar Yazdi, A. Vinel, Karen C. Davis, Hong Xian, F. Megahed, S. Rigdon
{"title":"涉及商用卡车驾驶员的重复安全关键事件的分层点过程模型:人类行为建模的可靠性框架","authors":"Miao Cai, Amir Mehdizadeh, Qiong Hu, Mohammad Ali Alamdar Yazdi, A. Vinel, Karen C. Davis, Hong Xian, F. Megahed, S. Rigdon","doi":"10.1080/00224065.2021.1939815","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Quality in the trucking industry involves several facets, including on-time performance and safety. In the largest naturalistic driving study to-date, with 496 drivers and 13 M miles driven, we address two safety questions: (a) does the occurrence of safety critical events increase during a driving shift? and (b) what is the effect of rest breaks on the incidence of those events? To address these two questions, we adopt point process models, commonly used to assess the reliability of repairable systems, to model the occurrence/likelihood of safety critical events. To account for driver differences, driver-level random effects were also assumed. Our results show that: (a) the intensity for hard brakes decreases throughout a shift, (b) rest breaks reduce the likelihood of activation of the automated collision mitigation system, and (c) there is a fair amount of variability among drivers. Given that a hard brake (a less severe safety critical event) is more common in the beginning of the shift, it can potentially be explained by an increased likelihood of being in a local/city road and/or increased likelihood of aggressive driving behavior early in a driver’s shift. Furthermore, we quantified the impact of rest breaks in reducing engagement of the more severe automated collision mitigation system, providing data-driven evidence on the importance of rest-break scheduling for trucking safety. Properties of the approach were also investigated through a simulation study, where we examined the consequences of an incorrect specification of the Bayesian priors.","PeriodicalId":54769,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Quality Technology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2021-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Hierarchical point process models for recurring safety critical events involving commercial truck drivers: A reliability framework for human performance modeling\",\"authors\":\"Miao Cai, Amir Mehdizadeh, Qiong Hu, Mohammad Ali Alamdar Yazdi, A. Vinel, Karen C. Davis, Hong Xian, F. Megahed, S. Rigdon\",\"doi\":\"10.1080/00224065.2021.1939815\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Abstract Quality in the trucking industry involves several facets, including on-time performance and safety. In the largest naturalistic driving study to-date, with 496 drivers and 13 M miles driven, we address two safety questions: (a) does the occurrence of safety critical events increase during a driving shift? and (b) what is the effect of rest breaks on the incidence of those events? To address these two questions, we adopt point process models, commonly used to assess the reliability of repairable systems, to model the occurrence/likelihood of safety critical events. To account for driver differences, driver-level random effects were also assumed. Our results show that: (a) the intensity for hard brakes decreases throughout a shift, (b) rest breaks reduce the likelihood of activation of the automated collision mitigation system, and (c) there is a fair amount of variability among drivers. Given that a hard brake (a less severe safety critical event) is more common in the beginning of the shift, it can potentially be explained by an increased likelihood of being in a local/city road and/or increased likelihood of aggressive driving behavior early in a driver’s shift. Furthermore, we quantified the impact of rest breaks in reducing engagement of the more severe automated collision mitigation system, providing data-driven evidence on the importance of rest-break scheduling for trucking safety. Properties of the approach were also investigated through a simulation study, where we examined the consequences of an incorrect specification of the Bayesian priors.\",\"PeriodicalId\":54769,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Quality Technology\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-07-15\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Quality Technology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1080/00224065.2021.1939815\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Quality Technology","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00224065.2021.1939815","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
Hierarchical point process models for recurring safety critical events involving commercial truck drivers: A reliability framework for human performance modeling
Abstract Quality in the trucking industry involves several facets, including on-time performance and safety. In the largest naturalistic driving study to-date, with 496 drivers and 13 M miles driven, we address two safety questions: (a) does the occurrence of safety critical events increase during a driving shift? and (b) what is the effect of rest breaks on the incidence of those events? To address these two questions, we adopt point process models, commonly used to assess the reliability of repairable systems, to model the occurrence/likelihood of safety critical events. To account for driver differences, driver-level random effects were also assumed. Our results show that: (a) the intensity for hard brakes decreases throughout a shift, (b) rest breaks reduce the likelihood of activation of the automated collision mitigation system, and (c) there is a fair amount of variability among drivers. Given that a hard brake (a less severe safety critical event) is more common in the beginning of the shift, it can potentially be explained by an increased likelihood of being in a local/city road and/or increased likelihood of aggressive driving behavior early in a driver’s shift. Furthermore, we quantified the impact of rest breaks in reducing engagement of the more severe automated collision mitigation system, providing data-driven evidence on the importance of rest-break scheduling for trucking safety. Properties of the approach were also investigated through a simulation study, where we examined the consequences of an incorrect specification of the Bayesian priors.
期刊介绍:
The objective of Journal of Quality Technology is to contribute to the technical advancement of the field of quality technology by publishing papers that emphasize the practical applicability of new techniques, instructive examples of the operation of existing techniques and results of historical researches. Expository, review, and tutorial papers are also acceptable if they are written in a style suitable for practicing engineers.
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