建造更多的房子:对住房供应的错误认识如何加剧了大衰退并减缓了复苏

Kevin Erdmann
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引用次数: 0

摘要

房屋供过于求是世纪之交后建筑热潮的结果,这通常被认为是大衰退和经济复苏缓慢的主要原因。通过使用国家数据和单个大都市地区的数据(如住房许可、住宅投资和人口趋势),我表明,系统性过度建设的证据很弱。在危机之前,新建筑主要是为了满足对住房的可持续需求。在供应不足造成需求被压抑的地方,以及由于家庭被迫搬离住房供应不足的地区而导致人口增加的地区,建筑数量增加了。空置率上升的最好解释是人口增长的意外下降。到2007年,人口下降趋势已经成为一些城市的问题,这些城市的高空置率和房价暴跌是经济衰退后最严重的。然而,在2007年和整个危机期间,美联储官员明确表示,供应过剩是住宅投资、建筑业就业和总体经济稳定复苏的障碍。简而言之,对住房供过于求而非实际供过于求的错误看法,促使美联储接受或诱发经济活动的负面趋势,从而加剧了深度衰退和缓慢复苏。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Build More Houses: How an Incorrect Perception of Housing Supply Fueled the Great Recession and Slowed Recovery
An oversupply of housing, as a result of a building boom after the turn of the century, is commonly cited as a key cause of the Great Recession and the slow recovery from that recession. Using both national data and data for individual metropolitan areas, such as housing permits, residential investment, and population trends, I show that the evidence for systematic overbuilding is weak. New building was primarily meeting sustainable demand for shelter before the crisis. Building had increased where local regions with inadequate supply had created pent up demand and in regions where population was increasing as households were forced to move away from regions with inadequate housing supply. Elevated vacancy rates, where they developed, are best explained by unexpected declines in population growth. Declining population trends had already become problematic by 2007 in cities where high vacancies and collapsing prices were the worst after the recession. Yet, in 2007 and throughout the crisis, Federal Reserve officials acted explicitly on the perception that excess supply was an impediment to a recovery in residential investment, construction employment, and general economic stability. In short, an incorrect perception of housing oversupply rather than actual oversupply fueled the deep recession and slow recovery by prompting the Federal Reserve to accept or induce negative trends in economic activity.
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