{"title":"用Box-Jenkins方法预测伊拉克农村人口比例","authors":"Q. M. Abdulqader","doi":"10.25271/sjuoz.2023.11.1.1124","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, the Box-Jenkins methodology has been applied and used to forecast the ratio of Iraq's rural population from 1960 to 2019. A sample size of (60) observations of the annually rural population of Iraq has been taken. A combination of some adequate time series models has been prepared and obtained and some statistical criteria have been used for comparison and model selection. Results of the study concluded that the ARIMA (0,2,1) is an adequate and best model to be used for forecasting the annual ratio of rural population data in Iraq. During the period 2020 to 2030, the ratio of the rural population will keep decreasing gradually, and the percentage of the rural population of Iraq in 2030 will be (27.732).","PeriodicalId":21627,"journal":{"name":"Science Journal of University of Zakho","volume":"54 12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Forecasting the Ratio of the Rural Population in Iraq Using Box-Jenkins Methodology\",\"authors\":\"Q. M. Abdulqader\",\"doi\":\"10.25271/sjuoz.2023.11.1.1124\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"In this paper, the Box-Jenkins methodology has been applied and used to forecast the ratio of Iraq's rural population from 1960 to 2019. A sample size of (60) observations of the annually rural population of Iraq has been taken. A combination of some adequate time series models has been prepared and obtained and some statistical criteria have been used for comparison and model selection. Results of the study concluded that the ARIMA (0,2,1) is an adequate and best model to be used for forecasting the annual ratio of rural population data in Iraq. During the period 2020 to 2030, the ratio of the rural population will keep decreasing gradually, and the percentage of the rural population of Iraq in 2030 will be (27.732).\",\"PeriodicalId\":21627,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Science Journal of University of Zakho\",\"volume\":\"54 12 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-02-20\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Science Journal of University of Zakho\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.25271/sjuoz.2023.11.1.1124\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Science Journal of University of Zakho","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.25271/sjuoz.2023.11.1.1124","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Forecasting the Ratio of the Rural Population in Iraq Using Box-Jenkins Methodology
In this paper, the Box-Jenkins methodology has been applied and used to forecast the ratio of Iraq's rural population from 1960 to 2019. A sample size of (60) observations of the annually rural population of Iraq has been taken. A combination of some adequate time series models has been prepared and obtained and some statistical criteria have been used for comparison and model selection. Results of the study concluded that the ARIMA (0,2,1) is an adequate and best model to be used for forecasting the annual ratio of rural population data in Iraq. During the period 2020 to 2030, the ratio of the rural population will keep decreasing gradually, and the percentage of the rural population of Iraq in 2030 will be (27.732).
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