{"title":"野猫对本地鸟类种群的影响。国家范围内的预测建模方法","authors":"Jakub Z. Kosicki","doi":"10.1016/j.ecocom.2021.100964","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Ecological interactions between native species are often disturbed by invasive species. However, to understand their impact on wild native animal populations on a country scale it is necessary to develop a predictive model. Therefore, I followed the species density distribution modelling approach to explore how feral domestic cats (<em>Felis catus</em>) along with environmental predictors determined densities of two bird species, the Yellowhammer (<em>Emberiza citrinella</em>) and the Yellow Wagtail (<em>Motacilla flava</em>) on the whole area of Poland. As a modelling method, I used the Generalised Additive Model to develop two models for each of the two bird species: The first with the feral cat density as an additional predictor, and the second without it. As a result, I demonstrated the negative impact of cat density on native bird populations, illustrated by reduced density of the two studied species in their preferred habitats, in which cats reached a high density. Although it cannot be explicitly asserted that cats lead to a local extinction of the two bird species, these predators should not be underestimated. In many locations feral populations are fed with new individuals, and they do not follow the same internal mechanisms regulating their population as the native bird fauna. Thus, on a large spatial scale species density distribution models of birds should include cats’ population size as an additional predictor when this predator's environmental preferences overlap with preferences of the studied target groups.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":50559,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Complexity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.1000,"publicationDate":"2021-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"3","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The impact of feral domestic cats on native bird populations. Predictive modelling approach on a country scale\",\"authors\":\"Jakub Z. Kosicki\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.ecocom.2021.100964\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Ecological interactions between native species are often disturbed by invasive species. However, to understand their impact on wild native animal populations on a country scale it is necessary to develop a predictive model. Therefore, I followed the species density distribution modelling approach to explore how feral domestic cats (<em>Felis catus</em>) along with environmental predictors determined densities of two bird species, the Yellowhammer (<em>Emberiza citrinella</em>) and the Yellow Wagtail (<em>Motacilla flava</em>) on the whole area of Poland. As a modelling method, I used the Generalised Additive Model to develop two models for each of the two bird species: The first with the feral cat density as an additional predictor, and the second without it. As a result, I demonstrated the negative impact of cat density on native bird populations, illustrated by reduced density of the two studied species in their preferred habitats, in which cats reached a high density. Although it cannot be explicitly asserted that cats lead to a local extinction of the two bird species, these predators should not be underestimated. In many locations feral populations are fed with new individuals, and they do not follow the same internal mechanisms regulating their population as the native bird fauna. Thus, on a large spatial scale species density distribution models of birds should include cats’ population size as an additional predictor when this predator's environmental preferences overlap with preferences of the studied target groups.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":50559,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Ecological Complexity\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-12-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"3\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Ecological Complexity\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1476945X2100057X\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ECOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Ecological Complexity","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1476945X2100057X","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
The impact of feral domestic cats on native bird populations. Predictive modelling approach on a country scale
Ecological interactions between native species are often disturbed by invasive species. However, to understand their impact on wild native animal populations on a country scale it is necessary to develop a predictive model. Therefore, I followed the species density distribution modelling approach to explore how feral domestic cats (Felis catus) along with environmental predictors determined densities of two bird species, the Yellowhammer (Emberiza citrinella) and the Yellow Wagtail (Motacilla flava) on the whole area of Poland. As a modelling method, I used the Generalised Additive Model to develop two models for each of the two bird species: The first with the feral cat density as an additional predictor, and the second without it. As a result, I demonstrated the negative impact of cat density on native bird populations, illustrated by reduced density of the two studied species in their preferred habitats, in which cats reached a high density. Although it cannot be explicitly asserted that cats lead to a local extinction of the two bird species, these predators should not be underestimated. In many locations feral populations are fed with new individuals, and they do not follow the same internal mechanisms regulating their population as the native bird fauna. Thus, on a large spatial scale species density distribution models of birds should include cats’ population size as an additional predictor when this predator's environmental preferences overlap with preferences of the studied target groups.
期刊介绍:
Ecological Complexity is an international journal devoted to the publication of high quality, peer-reviewed articles on all aspects of biocomplexity in the environment, theoretical ecology, and special issues on topics of current interest. The scope of the journal is wide and interdisciplinary with an integrated and quantitative approach. The journal particularly encourages submission of papers that integrate natural and social processes at appropriately broad spatio-temporal scales.
Ecological Complexity will publish research into the following areas:
• All aspects of biocomplexity in the environment and theoretical ecology
• Ecosystems and biospheres as complex adaptive systems
• Self-organization of spatially extended ecosystems
• Emergent properties and structures of complex ecosystems
• Ecological pattern formation in space and time
• The role of biophysical constraints and evolutionary attractors on species assemblages
• Ecological scaling (scale invariance, scale covariance and across scale dynamics), allometry, and hierarchy theory
• Ecological topology and networks
• Studies towards an ecology of complex systems
• Complex systems approaches for the study of dynamic human-environment interactions
• Using knowledge of nonlinear phenomena to better guide policy development for adaptation strategies and mitigation to environmental change
• New tools and methods for studying ecological complexity