不同能源情景下中国发电煤耗与碳排放

2011 International Conference on Computer Distributed Control and Intelligent Environmental Monitoring Pub Date : 2011-04-11 DOI:10.1109/CDCIEM.2011.48

Yan Sha, Zhang Quan

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文分析了在既定长期能源政策下，中国不同能源情景下的燃煤发电消耗情况。使用“2008年长期能源替代规划”(LEAP 2008)软件开发了一个简单的电力需求模型，并在这些情景下估计了中国到2030年的发电总煤炭消耗。并采用基于油耗的排放因子法建立了As的时间序列排放清单。结果表明，在BAU情景下，煤炭消费量将增加4倍，达到59.2亿立方米。As的总排放量为20.7 mtce，年均增长率为6.6%。在enr情景下，与BAU情景相比，煤炭消费总量和碳排放总量可分别减少25.89%和26.82%。

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Coal Consumption and As Emission in Electricity Generation in China under Different Energy Scenarios

This paper presents coal consumption of electricity generation in China under different energy scenarios of the given long-term energy policies. Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning 2008(LEAP 2008) software is used to develop a simple model of electricity demand and to estimate gross coal consumption of electricity generation in China until2030 under these scenarios. And, time-serial emission inventory of As is also built in the method of emission factors based on fuel consumptions. The results show that the coal consumption will increase by 4 times, amounting to 5.92 billiontces under BAU scenario. The total emission of As is 20.7Mtces with an average annual growth rate of 6.6%. UnderENR scenario, the total reduction of coal consumption and Asemission may reach 25.89% and 26.82% respectively compared to that in BAU scenario.

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2011 International Conference on Computer Distributed Control and Intelligent Environmental Monitoring

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