Post-Wildfire Debris Flows in Montecito, California (USA): A Case Study and Empirically Based Debris Volume Estimation

Wildfires have a strong influence on various geotechnical and hydraulic properties of soils and sediments, which may become more vulnerable to landslides or debris flows. In the present study, a case investigation of the 2018 post-wildfire debris flows in Montecito, California, USA, was conducted, with a focus on the wildfire-affected areas and debris volume estimation. Significant debris were deposited around four major creeks, i.e., Montecito Creek, San Ysidro Creek, Buena Vista Creek, and Romero Creek in January, 2018, one month after the Thomas fire. Satellite images utilizing remote sensing techniques and geographic information system (GIS) data were analyzed to identify areas affected by the wildfire. Relevant data, including the slope, catchment area, and rainfall were used in two empirical models to estimate the debris volumes around the four creeks. As compared with field observation, each debris volume estimated with these empirical models was within the same order of magnitude. The debris volumes were generally underestimated when using the rainfall recorded at the Montecito Weather Station; the estimates considerably improved with the rainfall record from the Doulton Tunnel Station. The results showed that, overall, such empirical approaches are still of benefit for engineering practice, as they are capable of offering first-order approximations. The accuracy and availability of rainfall data are critical factors; the rainfall data in mountainous areas are generally higher than in the low lands, and consequently were more suitable for debris volume estimation in the present study, where the debris flows typically occurred in areas with steep slopes and at higher elevations.