混沌与复杂性的定量研究方法:从概率到事后回归分析

Donald L. Gilstrap
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引用次数: 13

摘要

除了混沌和复杂性理论中提出的定性方法外,本文还讨论了定量方法,这些方法可能显示出未来研究的潜力。虽然许多社会和行为科学文献都集中在计算机模拟上,但本文探讨了当前的混乱和复杂方法,这些方法有可能弥合定性和定量之间的鸿沟,以及理论和应用之间的鸿沟,人类研究。这些方法包括多元线性回归、非线性回归、随机、蒙特卡罗方法、马尔可夫链和李亚普诺夫指数。在处理变量之间的相互作用效应和共线性时,提出了一个事后回归分析的假设,作为一个紧急的、递归的和迭代的定量方法的例子。这一假设还强调了定性和定量混沌和复杂性理论的力量,以便观察和描述系统出现的微观和宏观层面。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Quantitative Research Methods in Chaos and Complexity: From Probability to Post Hoc Regression Analyses
In addition to qualitative methods presented in chaos and complexity theories in educational research, this article addresses quantitative methods that may show potential for future research studies. Although much in the social and behavioral sciences literature has focused on computer simulations, this article explores current chaos and complexity methods that have the potential to bridge the divide between qualitative and quantitative, as well as theoretical and applied, human research studies. These methods include multiple linear regression, nonlinear regression, stochastics, Monte Carlo methods, Markov Chains, and Lyapunov exponents. A postulate for post hoc regression analysis is then presented as an example of an emergent, recursive, and iterative quantitative method when dealing with interaction effects and collinearity among variables. This postulate also highlights the power of both qualitative and quantitative chaos and complexity theories in order to observe and describe both the micro and macro levels of systemic emergence.
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