Hospital energy demand forecasting for prioritisation during periods of constrained supply

Purpose: Sustaining healthcare operations without adequate energy capacity creates significant challenges, especially during periods of constrained energy supply. This research develops a clinical and non-clinical activity-based hospital energy model for electrical load prioritization during periods of constrained energy supply.Design/methodology/approach: Discrete event modelling is adopted for development of the hospital energy model (HEM). The basis of the HEM is business process mapping of the hospitals clinical and non-clinical activities. The model prioritizes the electrical load demand as Priority 1, 2 and 3; with Priority 1 activities essential to the survival of patients, Priority 2 activities are critical activities that are required after one to four hours, and Priority 3 activities can run for several hours without electricity.Findings: The model was applied to a small, medium, and large hospital. The results demonstrate that Priority 2 activities have the highest energy demand, followed by Priority 1 and Priority 3 activities, respectively for all hospital sizes. For the medium and large hospitals, the top three contributors to energy demand are lighting, HVAC, and patient services. For the small hospital, it is patient services, lighting, and HVAC, respectively.Research limitations/implications: The model is specific to hospitals but can be modified for other healthcare facilities.Practical implications: The resolution of the electrical energy demand down to the business activity level, enables hospitals to evaluate current practices for optimization. It facilitates multiple energy supply scenarios, enabling hospital management to conduct feasibility studies based on available power supply optionsSocial implications: Improved planning of capital expenditure and operational budgets and during constrained energy supply. This reduces risk to hospitals and ensures consistent quality of service.  Originality/value: Current hospital energy models are limited, especially for operations management under constrained energy supply. A simple to use model is proposed to assist in planning of activities based on available supply.