印尼会陷入2023年的金融危机吗?预警模型系统的应用

IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS
A. Abimanyu, M. Imansyah, Muhammad Adisurya Pratama
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的-本文使用早期预警系统(EWMS)模型估计印度尼西亚发生金融危机的可能性。方法-基于计量逻辑概率模型(Logit),已经开发了一个定量EWMS模型,以检测2023年潜在的金融危机。研究结果-根据模型估计,印度尼西亚预计在未来12至24个月内,如果没有适当的宏观经济政策,将进入金融危机。近年来,印尼实施了审慎的宏观经济政策,如提高印尼央行政策利率和维持国家预算,以避免严重金融危机的影响。影响————为避免潜在的进一步金融危机,印度尼西亚必须实施范围更广的缓解危机政策。独创性/价值——尽管许多人认为金融危机是可预测的,但文献表明,人们对如何预防金融危机知之甚少。本文为解决这些问题提供了实证证据。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Will Indonesia enter the 2023 financial crisis? Application of early warning model system
Purpose ― This paper estimates the possibility of a financial crisis in Indonesia using an early warning system (EWMS) model. Method ― A quantitative EWMS model has been developed to detect a potential financial crisis in 2023 based on the econometric logistic probability model (Logit) Findings ― Based on the model estimates, Indonesia is expected to enter a financial crisis without adequate macroeconomic policies in the next 12 to 24 months. In recent years, Indonesia has implemented prudent macroeconomic policies such as increasing the Bank Indonesia policy rate and sustaining the state budget to avoid the impact of a deep financial crisis. Implications ― To avoid the potential for further financial crises, Indonesia must implement a wider range of crisis mitigation policies. Originality/value ― Although many argue that financial crises are predictable, it has been demonstrated in the literature that little is known about how to prevent them. This paper contributes to providing empirical evidence to address these issues.
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自引率
20.00%
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21
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12 weeks
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