{"title":"公路隧道群区交通事故的灰色马尔可夫预测分析","authors":"Wei Zhan, Q. Lü, Y. Shang","doi":"10.13229/J.CNKI.JDXBGXB201401011","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Based on the original data of traffic accidents in a typical highway tunnel group region, a grey forecasting model, which is modified by residual error model, is proposed to analyze the development trend of traffic accidents in highway tunnel group region. The forecasting accuracy is improved by introducing Markov optimization. Compared with commonly used forecasting method, the proposed method in this paper has a better forecasting accuracy and practicality in a period. It can be used for the forecasting analysis of traffic accidents and for security early warning in highway tunnel group region. Language: zh","PeriodicalId":16277,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Jilin University","volume":"43 1","pages":"62-67"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2014-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Analysis of gray-Markov forecasting for traffic accidents in highway tunnel group region\",\"authors\":\"Wei Zhan, Q. Lü, Y. Shang\",\"doi\":\"10.13229/J.CNKI.JDXBGXB201401011\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Based on the original data of traffic accidents in a typical highway tunnel group region, a grey forecasting model, which is modified by residual error model, is proposed to analyze the development trend of traffic accidents in highway tunnel group region. The forecasting accuracy is improved by introducing Markov optimization. Compared with commonly used forecasting method, the proposed method in this paper has a better forecasting accuracy and practicality in a period. It can be used for the forecasting analysis of traffic accidents and for security early warning in highway tunnel group region. Language: zh\",\"PeriodicalId\":16277,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Jilin University\",\"volume\":\"43 1\",\"pages\":\"62-67\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2014-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"2\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Jilin University\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.13229/J.CNKI.JDXBGXB201401011\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Jilin University","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.13229/J.CNKI.JDXBGXB201401011","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Analysis of gray-Markov forecasting for traffic accidents in highway tunnel group region
Based on the original data of traffic accidents in a typical highway tunnel group region, a grey forecasting model, which is modified by residual error model, is proposed to analyze the development trend of traffic accidents in highway tunnel group region. The forecasting accuracy is improved by introducing Markov optimization. Compared with commonly used forecasting method, the proposed method in this paper has a better forecasting accuracy and practicality in a period. It can be used for the forecasting analysis of traffic accidents and for security early warning in highway tunnel group region. Language: zh