基于IS - MP - AS模型的伊朗货币财政政策效率分析

Seyed Ehsan Alavi , Saeed Moshiri , Mohammad Sattarifar
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引用次数: 14

摘要

经济学家现在关注的是货币和财政政策的重要性。这些政策是经济学家和决策者正确引导经济、促进国家增长和发展的工具。因此,研究此类政策的效率和效果对经济领域的决策者来说至关重要。is - lm - as是过去几十年来分析这些政策的流行模型。然而,对于宏观经济的进步和经济学提出的更精确的模型来说,它并不是分析这些政策的最佳模型。is - mp - as (Romer, 2000)是一种解决is - lm - as的一些常见问题的新模型,同时具有一定的优势。伊朗虽然拥有丰富的自然资源和人力资源,但如果不能正确地运用货币和金融政策,伊朗可能不会得到适当的发展。因此,对政策及其效率和效力的分析在伊朗非常重要。本文研究IS-MP-AS在伊朗经济中的应用,并在此框架下研究货币和财政政策。结果表明,货币和财政政策在伊朗经济中是高效和有效的,并影响着该国的自然收入。根据研究结果,伊朗的GDP与预期通货膨胀、预算赤字与GDP之比和硬币价格呈负相关,与石油收入和汇率呈正相关。这可以用这五个变量来解释。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
An Analysis of the Efficiency of the Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Iran Economy Using IS – MP – AS Model

Economists are now focused on the importance of monetary and fiscal policies. Such policies are tools for economists and policy-makers to correctly direct the economy and facilitate the growth and development of the country. Accordingly, it is critically important for policy-makers in the area of economy to study the efficiency and the effectiveness of such policies. IS-LM-AS is a popular model for analysing these policies within past decades. However, it is not the best model for analysing these policies regarding the advancement of macroeconomics and more precise models presented by economics. IS-MP-AS (Romer, 2000) is a new model solving some of the ordinary problems of IS-LM-AS at the same time having some superiorities.

Failing to optimally use monetary and financial policies, Iran could have not properly developed despite of plentiful natural and human resources. The analysis of policies and their efficiency and effectiveness is, therefore, highly significant in Iran. This paper studies the application of IS-MP-AS to Iran's economy and looks at monetary and fiscal policies in this framework.

Results show that monetary and fiscal policies are highly efficient and effective in Iran's economy and affect the country's natural income. According to the research findings, Iran's GDP is negatively associated with expectation inflation, budget deficiency to GDP ratio, and coin prices and positively related to oil incomes and exchange rates. This can be explained by these five variables.

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