Welfare States' Policy Response to New Social Risk: Sequence Analysis for Welfare Policy*

This paper focuses on the trajectories of welfare state change through policy response to new social risks and methodologically categorizes the pattern of trajectories with sequence analysis. New social risks are the risks that people face in their life course due to the economic and social changes related to post-industrialization. By comparing a typology of welfare states based on trajectories of policy change in last three decades with Esping-Andersen’s threefold typologies of welfare states, we can determine whether welfare states maintain their existing welfare systems or change them. The results of sequence analysis on social expenditures and total tax revenue show that welfare regimes undergo a substantial change. In particular, conservative welfare regime countries show various trajectories when reacting to new social risks. This finding empirically supports studies that assert the transformation of the welfare state.