Potential impacts of changing climate on nature-based tourism: A case study of South Africa’s national parks

Climate change has the potential to have significant impacts on the global tourism industry through changes in accessibility and comfort levels, as well as geographic or seasonal changes to attractions (Rosselló-Nadal 2014; Scott, Gössling & Hall 2012). Global and regional studies based on climate indices and data suggest that there will be global shifts in tourism, with an improvement in conditions in many temperate areas and a deterioration in conditions in many subtropical and tropical areas (Bigano, Hamilton & Tol 2007; Rosselló & Santana 2012; Tol & Walsh 2012). Indications are that tourism may decline in much of the Global South. This is of particular concern, not only because tourism is a significant source of foreign exchange earnings in developing countries (Scott et al. 2012), but also because of the global importance of biodiversity conservation in these countries and the direct and indirect reliance of conservation on nature-based tourism. However, comparatively little empirical work has been done on nature-based or protected area tourism, particularly in developing countries.