{"title":"SIR模型的渐近分析。COVID-19模型的应用","authors":"D. Prodanov","doi":"10.21203/RS.3.RS-255095/V1","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\n The SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model can be very useful in modelling epidemic outbreaks. The present paper derives the parametric solution of the model in terms of quadratures. The paper demonstrates a simple analytical asymptotic solution for the I-variable, which is valid on the entire real line. Moreover, the solution can be used successfully for parametric estimation either in stand-alone mode or as a preliminary step in the parametric estimation using numerical inversion of the parametric solution. The approach is applied to the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in three European countries --Belgium, Italy and Sweden.","PeriodicalId":23650,"journal":{"name":"viXra","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2021-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Asymptotic analysis of the SIR model. Applications to COVID-19 modelling\",\"authors\":\"D. Prodanov\",\"doi\":\"10.21203/RS.3.RS-255095/V1\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"\\n The SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model can be very useful in modelling epidemic outbreaks. The present paper derives the parametric solution of the model in terms of quadratures. The paper demonstrates a simple analytical asymptotic solution for the I-variable, which is valid on the entire real line. Moreover, the solution can be used successfully for parametric estimation either in stand-alone mode or as a preliminary step in the parametric estimation using numerical inversion of the parametric solution. The approach is applied to the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in three European countries --Belgium, Italy and Sweden.\",\"PeriodicalId\":23650,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"viXra\",\"volume\":\"14 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-03-22\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"viXra\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.21203/RS.3.RS-255095/V1\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"viXra","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.21203/RS.3.RS-255095/V1","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Asymptotic analysis of the SIR model. Applications to COVID-19 modelling
The SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model can be very useful in modelling epidemic outbreaks. The present paper derives the parametric solution of the model in terms of quadratures. The paper demonstrates a simple analytical asymptotic solution for the I-variable, which is valid on the entire real line. Moreover, the solution can be used successfully for parametric estimation either in stand-alone mode or as a preliminary step in the parametric estimation using numerical inversion of the parametric solution. The approach is applied to the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in three European countries --Belgium, Italy and Sweden.
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