经济政策的不确定性会影响分析师预测的准确性吗?

Rumpa Biswas
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引用次数: 4

摘要

我研究了分析师预测误差与经济政策不确定性的动态关系,发现经济政策不确定性与分析师预测误差之间存在显著的正相关关系。经济政策不确定性增加一倍,EPS预测误差增加4.29个百分点,分析师预测误差的波动性和分散性与经济政策不确定性呈正相关。对经济政策不确定性敏感性越高的企业,其收益预测误差越高,且与其他风险因素相比,不确定性因素仍具有显著性。此外,具有较高特质风险的企业对经济政策的不确定性表现出更高的敏感性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Affect Analyst Forecast Accuracy?
I investigate the dynamics of analyst forecast errors relative to economic policy uncertainty and find a significant positive relation between economic policy uncertainty and analyst forecast errors. A doubling of economic policy uncertainty is associated with a 4.29 percentage points increase in earnings (EPS) forecast errors, and the volatility and dispersion in analyst forecast errors are positively related to the economic policy uncertainty. Earnings forecast errors are higher for firms with higher sensitivity to the economic policy uncertainty, and the uncertainty factor retains its significance when compared to other risk factors. Additionally, firms with higher idiosyncratic risks show a higher sensitivity to the economic policy uncertainty.
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