Action Conditioned Response Prediction with Uncertainty for Automated Vehicles

Interaction-aware prediction is a critical component for realistic path planning that prevents automated vehicles from overly cautious driving. It requires to consider internal states of other driver such as driving style and intention, which the automated vehicle cannot directly measure. This paper proposes a probabilistic driver model for response prediction given the planned future actions of automated vehicle. The drivers internal states are considered in an unsupervised manner. The prediction model utilizes mixture density network to estimate future acceleration and yaw-rate profile of interacting vehicles. The proposed method is evaluated by using real-world trajectory data.