都市圈土地利用情景探索:基于多目标优化模型的地方农业系统食物平衡

Guido Sali , Federica Monaco , Chiara Mazzocchi , Stefano Corsi
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引用次数: 15

摘要

对农业粮食系统可持续性的评估基于不同的几种工具。但是,结构变化的经济和政策影响,例如土地利用变化和其他变化,例如不同的方向或耕作技术,可以主要通过情景分析来确定。特别是在大都市地区,农业部门受到各种不同压力的威胁,因此需要一种能够充分满足需求的粮食供应。在这个意义上,本文建议利用数学规划来评估与粮食供需之间更高的合规性有关的一些可能的情况。该方法基于线性规划模型,考虑了米兰大都市区的生产和消费规模。模拟了五种情景,具有不同程度的可持续性和对需求的遵守,展示了区域农业粮食系统在适应和调整自身以适应这种变化方面的潜力。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Exploring Land Use Scenarios in Metropolitan Areas: Food Balance in a Local Agricultural System by Using a Multi-objective Optimization Model

The assessment of sustainability of agro-food systems is based on different and several tools. However, economic and policy implications of structural changes, such as land use change, and other modifications, for instance a different orientation or farming technique, could be mainly determined through scenario analysis. Especially in metropolitan regions, where the agricultural sector is threatened by various different pressures, a food supply adequately respondent to the demand is needed. In this sense the paper proposes the utilization of mathematical programming to assess some possible scenarios related to a higher compliance between food supply and demand. The approach is based on a linear programming model that takes into account the production and consumption dimensions in the Milan Metropolitan Area. Five scenarios are simulated, with different levels of sustainability and compliance with demand, demonstrating the potentialities of the regional agro-food system in adapting and adjusting itself to such modifications.

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