{"title":"政策不确定性与美国房价","authors":"Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee, S. Ghodsi","doi":"10.1080/10835547.2017.12089999","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Executive Summary. Previous research has either relied on a time series model or a panel model to establish cointegration between house prices and their main determinants, such as a measure of household income and a measure of interest rates. The findings are mixed but mostly lean toward rejecting cointegration between house prices and economic fundamentals. None of the studies included a measure policy uncertainty in their models. We include a measure of policy uncertainty in our model and use the bounds testing approach for cointegration and error-correction modeling. We find that policy uncertainty has short-run and mostly negative effects on house prices in 24 states. The short-run effects last into the long run in 17 states. Furthermore, cointegration is established in 35 states.","PeriodicalId":35895,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2017-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"27","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Policy Uncertainty and House Prices in the United States\",\"authors\":\"Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee, S. Ghodsi\",\"doi\":\"10.1080/10835547.2017.12089999\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Executive Summary. Previous research has either relied on a time series model or a panel model to establish cointegration between house prices and their main determinants, such as a measure of household income and a measure of interest rates. The findings are mixed but mostly lean toward rejecting cointegration between house prices and economic fundamentals. None of the studies included a measure policy uncertainty in their models. We include a measure of policy uncertainty in our model and use the bounds testing approach for cointegration and error-correction modeling. We find that policy uncertainty has short-run and mostly negative effects on house prices in 24 states. The short-run effects last into the long run in 17 states. Furthermore, cointegration is established in 35 states.\",\"PeriodicalId\":35895,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2017-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"27\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1080/10835547.2017.12089999\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"Economics, Econometrics and Finance\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10835547.2017.12089999","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","Score":null,"Total":0}
Policy Uncertainty and House Prices in the United States
Executive Summary. Previous research has either relied on a time series model or a panel model to establish cointegration between house prices and their main determinants, such as a measure of household income and a measure of interest rates. The findings are mixed but mostly lean toward rejecting cointegration between house prices and economic fundamentals. None of the studies included a measure policy uncertainty in their models. We include a measure of policy uncertainty in our model and use the bounds testing approach for cointegration and error-correction modeling. We find that policy uncertainty has short-run and mostly negative effects on house prices in 24 states. The short-run effects last into the long run in 17 states. Furthermore, cointegration is established in 35 states.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management (JREPM) is a publication of the American Real Estate Society (ARES). Its purpose is to disseminate applied research on real estate investment and portfolio management.