Preventing War with a Warfighting Domain: Nuclear Deterrence Lessons for Space

ABSTRACT One of the major issues for spacefaring states is the extent to which space deterrence can be effective. This article contributes to our general understanding of space deterrence in two ways. First, it identifies some of the characteristics of nuclear weapons that appear, at least in theory, to contribute to deterrence and examines the extent to which those characteristics exist in the space domain. Second, it elaborates on three different aspects of space deterrence, including: the use of space capabilities to target another state’s space assets (deterrence in space); the use of space capabilities to target another state’s terrestrial assets (deterrence from space); and the use of terrestrial capabilities to target another state’s space assets (deterrence against space). Most of the nine characteristics of nuclear weapons examined here exist when deterring from space, while only a few exist for deterring against space, and almost none are present when deterring in space. In the absence of many characteristics that enhance nuclear deterrence, states must find other ways to enhance space deterrence. It may be possible to focus future technological development on certain types of capabilities that will allow states to prevent war both across domains and within the space domain.